集成DEMATEL与ISM的铁路行车事故影响因素分析

Research on factors influencing railway accidents based on DEMATEL and ISM integrated method

为研究铁路行车事故影响因素及各因素之间的关系,基于中国铁路某局集团有限公司2014—2018年1078起行车安全事故案例,统计分析事故致因,从人员、设备、外部环境和管理4个维度,分析归纳出19个事故影响因素。集成决策实验室分析法(DEMATEL)和解释结构模型法(ISM)研究因素间复杂关联关系及其对事故的影响程度,建立铁路行车事故影响因素多级递阶解释结构模型。结果表明:设备设施元件故障或性能不良是行车事故的主要影响因素,对事故作用程度最大,其次为违章/违规作业,人员设置不合理和设备设施设计/质量缺陷对事故的影响相对较弱;设备设施元件故障或性能不良、防护失效、障碍物侵限等设备和外部环境因素对行车事故产生直接影响;违章/违规作业、应急处理能力不足等为过渡致因;监督和管理不到位、教育培训不到位分别是行车事故的深层因素和根源性因素,重视根本因素的改善利于从本质上预防和控制事故发生。

This article is dedicated to comprehensively studying the influencing factors of railway traffic accidents and their relationships,providing a basis for accident prevention.Based on 1078 railway accidents in a China Railway Administration Group Co.,Ltd.from 2014 to 2018,the causes of these accidents were counted and summarized,and then 19 accident influencing factors were abstracted from four aspects of personnel,equipment,external environment,and management.Integrating Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory(DEMATEL)method and Interpretative Structural Modeling(ISM)method,the influence degree,affected degree,cause degree,and centrality of the factors were calculated to study the causal relationship between the influencing factors and the influence degree of different factors on the accident,to determine the key factors.Then based on the comprehensive influence matrix,the factors were divided into levels in the terms of the complex logical relationship between them,and a multi-level hierarchical interpretation structure model of influencing factors of railway traffic accidents was established.The results show that:equipment failure or poor performance is the main factor affecting traffic accidents,which has the greatest impact on the accident,followed by operation in violation of rules or regulations.These important factors are the key to accident management and control.Unreasonable personnel setting and design/quality defects of equipment and facilities have a relatively weak impact on the accident.Equipment factors such as the failure or poor performance of equipment and facilities and protection failure and external environmental factors such as obstacle intrusion are located at the top of the structural model,which have a direct impact on railway accidents.Human factors such as illegal operations and insufficient emergency handling capacity are the transitional causes,which play a bridge role in the occurrence of accidents.Lack of supervision and management and inadequate education and training are the deep and root causes of driving accidents.Paying more attention to the improvement of fundamental factors is conducive to the prevention and control of accidents in essence.