基于ISM和网络计划的口岸站流程脆弱度分析

Vulnerability analysis of port station process based on ISM and network plan

为解决铁路国境口岸站流程中由于运作能力、运作方式导致的口岸瓶颈问题,应用解释结构模型(Interpretation Structure Model,ISM)和基于广义三角模糊数(Generalized Triangular Fuzzy Number,GTFN)的网络计划相结合的方法识别脆弱作业环节,并通过流程仿真进行了验证。首先,梳理铁路国境口岸站进口作业流程,构建进口作业流程的网络计划图,考虑作业时间统计的模糊性,使用GTFN表示流程时间,并基于信息向量的比较确定关键路径。然后,通过作业时间的比较,对关键节点进行排序,得到关键脆弱度,并结合ISM确定关键作业环节的层次,得到层次脆弱度,修正关键环节的综合脆弱度排序。最后,利用仿真技术定向攻击识别出的关键节点,根据攻击后流程输出数据变化,分析流程仿真的脆弱度。结果表明:ISM和基于GTFN的网络计划相结合的方法识别出了集装箱集结、审核报关单等脆弱环节;仿真结果与上述结果基本一致,验证了方法的可行性。

To identify the comprehensive fragility of the process of railway international port stations,a method combining ISM(Interpretation Structure Model)and network planning based on GTFN(Generalized Triangular Fuzzy Number)is proposed to identify the key works of the import operation process,and the process fragility analysis is verified by process simulation in Flexsim.Firstly,by sorting out the export operation process of railway border stations from the aspects of information,participants,work connection,etc.,and streamlining the diversion links where the small flow does not affect the overall operation,a double code network planning diagram based on the export operation process of international freight trains is constructed.Considering the fuzziness of operation time statistics,time distributions of operation links obtained through extensive literature review and field research are converted into GTFN,then GTFN is used to represent the processing time,and the critical path is determined based on the comparison of information vectors.Secondly,the ranking of key works is obtained by comparing the information vectors of operation time based on a generalized fuzzy number,and the critical vulnerability is obtained by dimensionless processing of ranking.Combined with the level of key works by ISM,the key works identified are merged and the hierarchical vulnerability through the dimensionless processing is obtained,then the comprehensive vulnerability of the key works are corrected considering the relevance of the operation works structure.Finally,the key works are verified by simulation,and the identified key nodes are targeted for-50%to 50%time-adjusted attacks.The vulnerability analysis is carried out according to the change of the output ratio of the whole process.Finally,the key works of the port station process are determined,and the comprehensive vulnerability is analyzed.