“放管服”背景下消防安全告知承诺管理策略研究

Research on the management strategy of fire notification and commitment management under the background of“Decentralized Management Service”

为厘清“放管服”背景下消防告知承诺管理中消防救援机构与公共聚集场所间的互动博弈关系,基于演化博弈理论构建了消防告知承诺博弈模型。引入公众参与、信用监管等因素,探究了消防救援机构与公共聚集场所策略选择的稳定性,并采取数值仿真从消防救援机构策略参数与公共聚集场所策略参数两个维度考察了博弈主体策略组合的动态演化轨迹。结果表明:消防告知承诺管理博弈系统共可演化派生出9种策略组合,各存在2种分别向O(0,0)、A(1,0)、B(1,1)、C(0,1)收敛的演化稳定策略,以及1种具有循环往复波动特征的混合策略模式。加强消防救援机构的现场核查力度、优化政务信息化水平与监管奖惩机制,将形成较好的消防安全监管环境、确保社会火灾形势平稳。探索建立多主体参与的消防安全社会共治体系是有效破解消防监管难题、提升公众消防意识、充实消防监管力量的重要举措。

To clarify the interactive game relationship between fire rescue agencies and public gathering places in the management of fire notification and commitment management under the background of“Decentralized Management Service”,a game model of fire notification and commitment management was constructed based on the evolutionary game theory.By introducing factors such as public participation and credit supervision,the stability of the strategy selection between fire rescue agencies and public gathering places was explored.Numerical simulation was used to investigate the dynamic evolution trajectory of the strategy combination of fire rescue agencies and public gathering places.The research results show that:the fire notification commitment management game system can evolve and derive 9 strategy combinations.Each two evolutionary stable strategies converge to O(0,0),A(1,0),B(1,1),and C(0,1)respectively,and a hybrid strategy with cyclical fluctuation characteristics mode.Strengthening the on-site verification of fire rescue agencies and optimizing the level of government informatization and supervision reward and punishment mechanism are conducive to fire rescue agencies and public gathering places to choose active performance verification strategies and commitment strategies respectively,which will form a better fire safety supervision environment and ensure a stable fire situation in the society.Besides,the introduction of social public participation into the management of fire notification commitments will help suppress false promises in public gathering places and will encourage fire rescue agencies to choose active performance verification strategies.It can be seen that the establishment of a fire safety social co-governance system with multi-agent participation is an important measure to effectively solve the problem of fire protection supervision,enhance public fire protection awareness,and enrich the fire supervision forces.However,it should be noted that in the fire notification and commitment management,it is necessary to avoid some problems,such as the lack of motivation of fire rescue agencies to choose active strategies due to the satisfaction of regulatory performance,and the reduction of the cost of supervision of fire and rescue agencies contributes to the inertia of the supervision of fire rescue agencies.