重大燃气管道泄漏爆炸事故组织因素定量分析方法研究

Research on quantitative analysis approach for deep organizational causes of serious leakage and explosion accident of gas pipeline

为研究重大燃气管道泄漏爆炸事故深层成因机制,首先基于24Model系统辨识和遴选事故组织因素与外部因素,然后集成模糊理论改进决策试验与评价实验室(Decision Making Trail and Evaluation Laboratory,DEMATEL)耦合解释结构模型(Interpretive Structural Modeling,ISM)方法,通过递阶层次结构模型探讨各因素间的逻辑关系;运用交互矩阵影响相乘法(MICMAC)深入剖析各因素属性特征并提取关键要素,最后对湖北十堰“6·13”重大事故开展了实例分析。结果表明:在政府安全管理政策和制度缺陷等外部客观风险因素的影响下,燃气公司对安全的重要程度认识不足、安全融入企业管理不足和对安全主体责任认识不足是事故爆发的关键主观组织因素,并对安全管理体系产生负面影响;应从政府和燃气公司2个角度采取针对性的措施,共同防范类似事故的再次发生。

To explore the deep organizational cause mechanism for serious explosion accidents of gas pipeline,as well as prevent the accidents effectively,we proposed a new quantitative analysis method based on 24 Model.Firstly,we applied the logic recognition procedure of 24 Model to identify the individual and organizational causes as well as the external factors.Secondly,the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory(DEMATEL)with the interpretive structural modeling(ISM)was built to overcome the shortcomings of these two methods by joining the fuzzy theory to divide the hierarchical structure of organizational causes.Thirdly,the Matrix Impacts Cross-reference Multiplication Applied to Classification(MICMAC)approach was applied to calculate the driving power and dependence of each factor.Then we used the MICMAC to classify the attribute categories and withdraw the key influential factors in the form of a coordinate system visually.Last but not least,we applied the proposed new method to the“6·13”accident which occurred in Shiyan,Hubei Province in 2021.The analysis results proved that under the influence of external objective risk factors such as the defects of government safety management policies and systems,the insufficient understanding of the importance of safety,enterprise safety management,and safety subject responsibility were the key subjective organizational causes in an accident.These causes hurt the safety management system.Besides,the targeted measure could be taken from the perspective of local government and gas companies to jointly prevent the recurrence of accidents.Moreover,the fuzzy DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC method can effectively reveal the influence law and attribute characteristics of organizational causes,which is not only an effective supplement to the 24 Model but also is a helpful method to promote the depth application of 24 Model in the field of oil and gas.