基于熵权TOPSIS模型的长春市水资源承载力评价

Application of TOPSIS method based on entropy weight evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in Changchun City

为了对长春市水资源承载力进行评价,涵盖水资源系统、社会系统、经济系统和生态环境系统4个方面,选取单位面积水资源量、人口密度、万元工业增加值用水量和生态环境用水率等共14个指标的区域水资源承载力评价指标体系;引用改进熵权的TOPSIS模型评价方法,介入信息熵计算各评价指标的权重,利用欧式距离的最优解法对水资源承载力进行评价。结果表明:从各市县来看,水资源承载力由高到低依次为德惠市、榆树市、长春市区、双阳区、九台区,水资源承载力处于Ⅲ“中等”水平;农安县排在最后,水资源承载力处于Ⅱ“较弱水平”。单位面积水资源量、地表水资源占比、人均水资源占有量和城镇化率指标为影响长春市水资源承载力的有利因子,人均水资源利用量、单位面积灌溉用水量等其余10个指标则为不利因子。总体来看,该区域具有相对的开发利用潜力,在一定区域和时间里,能够为整个长春市经济社会的发展提供水资源保障,但未来发展情况不容乐观,也要给予必要关注和采取有效措施予以应对。评价结果与各市(区)县水资源实际情况相吻合,该评价模型能够综合考虑影响因素,有效降低了评价中主观因素的影响,为水资源承载力评价提供理论依据和可行性参考。

To evaluate the water resource carrying capacity of Changchun City,a regional water resources carrying capacity evaluation index system with four aspects including the water resources system,social system,economic system,and ecological environment system was established.The index system consists of 14 indicators such as environmental water use rate.TOPSIS model evaluation method with improved entropy weight is used,information entropy is used to calculate the weight of each evaluation index,and the optimal solution of Euclidean distance is used for water resources carrying capacity evaluation.The results show that:from the perspective of cities and counties,the water resource carrying capacity in descending order are Dehui City,Yushu City,Changchun City,Shuangyang District,Jiutai District,and the water resource carrying capacity is at the Ⅲ“medium”level;Nong’an County is ranked last,and the carrying capacity of water resources is at the“weak”level of Ⅱ.Water resources per unit area,proportion of surface water resources,per capita water resources,and urbanization rate indicators are favorable factors affecting the water resources carrying capacity of Changchun City.The remaining 10 indicators include per capita water resource utilization and irrigation water consumption per unit area are unfavorable factors.On the whole,this area has relative development and utilization potential.In a certain area and time,it can provide water resources for the economic and social development of Changchun City.However,the future development situation is not optimistic,and necessary attention and effective measures should be taken.The evaluation results are consistent with the actual conditions of water resources in each city(district)and county.The evaluation model can comprehensively consider influencing factors,effectively reduce the impact of subjective factors in the evaluation,and provide a theoretical basis and feasibility reference for the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity.