基于斜坡单元和证据权-Logistic回归的滑坡易发性评价

Landslide susceptibility evaluation of reservoir banks by evidence weight-logistic regression coupling model based on GIS slope unit

斜坡单元作为制图单元在滑坡易发性评价中优势已愈加凸显,但多数研究仍只是将其与栅格单元进行对比研究,对其评价模型的研究较少。以白鹤滩库区为例,选取坡度、坡向、坡型、起伏度、断层、水系和工程岩组等7个影响因子,在斜坡单元的基础上采用证据权模型、Logistic回归模型和二者耦合模型对滑坡的易发性进行对比分析。研究表明:通过ROC曲线对结果进行检验,得到二者耦合模型、Logistic模型、证据权模型的AUC值分别为0.901,0.891,0.880,说明采用证据权-Logistic回归耦合模型较Logistic或证据权单一模型评价结果更加合理,更加精确。这表明基于斜坡单元的证据权法-Logistic回归耦合模型能够提高滑坡易发性评价的精度。研究结果可为滑坡易发性评价与地质灾害防治工作提供有益借鉴。

The advantage of slope unit as mapping unit in landslide susceptibility evaluation has become more and more prominent, but most studies still only compare it with grid unit, and there are few studies on its evaluation method.This paper intended to map the landslide hazard susceptibility in Baihetan Reservoir area by evidence weight model, logistic regression model, and coupled evidence weight-logistic regression model(coupled model)based on GIS slope unit.In the analysis, seven influencing factors were selected, including slope, aspect, curvature, topographic relief, fault, water system, and engineering rock group.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was used to test the results, and the AUC values of the coupled model, the logistic model, and the evidence weight model were 0.901, 0.891, and 0.880, respectively.The results show that the coupled model is more reasonable and more accurate than the logistic or evidence weight model.It shows that the coupled model based GIS slope unit can improve the accuracy of landslide susceptibility evaluation.The research results can provide useful reference for landslide susceptibility evaluation and geological disaster prevention and control.