南疆暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划

Risk Zoning of Rainstorm and Flood Disasters in Southern Xinjiang

统计分析2010—2020年南疆气象观测逐小时降水及各县暴雨洪涝灾情数据,将灾损指标按百分位法划分为4个等级,基于GIS技术的自然断点法,从暴雨事件和孕灾环境方面,将暴雨洪涝灾害危险性等级划分为低、中低、中高、高级。结果表明:6、12、24 h最大降水量可作为南疆暴雨洪涝灾害的气象致灾因子,且北部高于南部,西部高于东部,山区高于平原。受灾人口特重区域在和田地区洛浦县、墨玉县和于田县;直接经济损失特重区域在和静县、沙雅县、乌什县;农作物受灾特重区域在阿克苏地区沙雅县、喀什地区英吉沙县和岳普湖县;暴雨洪涝灾害高风险区域主要集中在和田地区于田县南部山区、阿克苏地区西部北部山区、喀什地区泽普县、巴州北部轮台县山区。

Using hourly precipitation and rainstorm and flood disaster data of meteorological observations in southern Xinjiang from 2010 to 2020 for statistical analysis,the disaster loss indicators are divided into 4 grades by percentile method.Based on GIS technology and natural breakpoint method,the rainstorm and flood disaster risk grade is divided into four levels:low,medium low,medium high and high from rainstorm events and disaster-pregnant environment.The results show that the maximum precipitation in 6,12,24 h can be used as meteorological disaster-causing factors of rainstorm and flood disaster in southern Xinjiang,and the northern is higher than the southern,the western is higher than the eastern,the mountainous area are higher than the plains.Luopu County,Moyu County and Yutian County in Hotan Prefecture are particularly affected by the disaster.The direct economic losses are particularly serious in Hejing County,Shaya County and Wushi County.The crop were particularly affected in Shaya County of Aksu Prefecture,Yingjisha County and Yuepuhu County of Kashgar Prefecture.The high risk areas of rainstorm and flood disasters are mainly concentrated in the southern mountainous area of Yutian County in Hotan Prefecture,the western and northern mountainous area of Aksu Prefecture,Zepu County in Kashgar Prefecture and mountainous area of Luntai County in northern Bayingolin Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture.