中美经济政策不确定性偏离与宏观经济波动

Deviation of Sino-US Economic Policy Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

经济政策不确定性是影响宏观经济波动的重要因素。文章运用DSGE模型分析了经济政策不确定性的宏观经济效应,从中美经济政策不确定性偏离的角度刻画我国宏观经济波动的阶段性特征。模拟分析和计量检验结果表明:第一,经济政策不确定性会对宏观经济产生负向冲击,并在不同政策目标下呈现差异化响应特征;第二,在中美经济政策不确定性偏离的不同阶段,经济政策不确定性冲击的宏观经济效应存在显著差异,国内经济政策不确定性冲击是经济波动的主要来源;第三,中美经济政策不确定性呈现出“偏离上升期→偏离下降期→偏离平稳期”的变化过程,其对宏观经济冲击影响的差异程度也呈现出逐步降低态势。

Economic policy uncertainty is an important factor affecting macroeconomic fluctuations.Based on DSGE model,this paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of economic policy uncertainty and depicts the stage characteristics of China’s macroeconomic fluctuations from the perspective of the deviation of Sino-US economic policy uncertainty.The results of simulation analysis and econometric test show that:(1)economic policy uncertainty will have a negative impact on macro economy,showing the characteristics of differential responses under different policy objectives;(2)in different stages of the deviation of Sino-US economic policy uncertainty,there are significant differences in the macroeconomic effects of the impact of economic policy uncertainty,and the impact of domestic economic policy uncertainty is the main source of economic fluctuations;(3)Sino-US economic policy uncertainty presents a change process of“the rising period of deviation→the falling period of deviation→the stable period of deviation”and the degree of difference in its impact on macro economy also shows a gradually decreasing trend.