咸宁市耕地演变及粮食安全分析

Analysis on Relationships between Evolution of Cultivated Land and Food Security

利用熵权法选取粮食产量波动力、粮食自给率、粮食储备率和人均粮食消费量确定粮食安全指数。运用主成分分析法选取耕地面积、粮食播种面积比重、有效灌溉面积、化肥、农药使用量、机械化总动力、用电情况、第一产业劳动力和固定资产投入确定耕地演变指数。采用VAR模型对耕地演变指数与粮食安全指数对整体分析。结果表明:①总体上粮食安全指数呈现下降趋势,总体波动变化也较为明显。耕地演变呈现不断上升趋势,但在2010年以后表现为波动变化和小幅下降;②耕地演变指数与粮食安全指数呈现负相关关系,但二者并不是互为因果关系,耕地演变指数是粮食安全指数的因。据此,从耕地流转市场机制构建和耕地保护政策体系角度提出政策建议。

The entropy weight method was used to select the wave dynamics of grain yield,grain self-sufficiency rate,grain reserve rate and per capita grain consumption to determine the grain security index.Based on the principal component analysis method,the cultivated land area,the proportion of grain sown area,the effective irrigated area,the use of chemical fertilizer and pesticide,the total power of mechanization,electricity consumption,labor force of primary industry and fixed assets input were selected to determine the cultivated land evolution index.VAR model was used to analyze the cultivated land evolution index and food security index.The results showed as follows:①Overall,the food security index showed a downward trend,and the overall fluctuation was more obvious.The change of cultivated land showed an increasing trend,but fluctuated and decreased slightly after 2010.②There is a negative correlation between the cultivated land change index and the food security index,but the two are not mutually causal,and the cultivated land change index is the cause of the food security index.Above all,policy suggestions were put forward from perspective of market mechanism construction of cultivated land transfer and cultivated land protection policy system.