婚姻匹配竞争是房价高涨的推手吗?——基于空间溢出视角的实证分析

Is marriage matching competition the driving force behind rising housing prices?——Empirical analysis from the perspective of spatial spillover

在我国适婚人群性别失配与房价高位波动双重背景下,厘清婚配竞争对住房市场的多重效应是因城施策促进房地产业健康发展的重要依据。首先,基于经典信号理论模型构建了有无住房信号、男女均衡失衡双重对照的婚姻匹配模型;其次,使用中国286个地级市的空间数据检验了房价波动背后婚配竞争的推动作用;最后,探讨了婚配竞争对住房价格溢出效应的时空格局及其演变规律。研究发现:空间溢出视角下婚配竞争加剧是住房价格上涨的重要原因,婚配竞争对本地及邻地的房价均具有显著的正向刺激作用;婚配竞争对房价的影响随城市空间区位与时间区间的变化而呈现出异质性。研究结论对于破解我国高房价之困、提高住房调控的精准性和时效性、化解性别失衡及婚配竞争加剧带来的社会问题等意义重大。

Under the dual background of the gender mismatch of marriageable people and the high fluctuation of housing prices in China,it is an important basis for urban policies to promote the healthy development of the real estate industry to clarify the multiple effects of marriage competition on the housing market.First,the paper constructs a double contrastive model which compares the situations with or without housing signals,as well as balanced or unbalanced sex ratio based on classical signal theory.Secondly,it attempts to examine the driving role of marriage matching competition behind the fluctuation of house prices with the spatial data of 286 prefecture-level cities in China.Thirdly,it reveals the multiple effects of marriage matching competition on housing prices and their spatial-temporal differentiation from the perspective of spatial spillover.The results show that:(1)The intensified marriage matching competition is an important reason for the rising housing prices from the perspective of spatial spillover.It has a significant stimulative effect on local and neighboring housing prices.(2)The impact of marriage matching competition on house prices shows heterogeneous characteristics depending on geographic location and time interval.The conclusions have theoretical and practical value for solving the problem of high house prices in China,improving the accuracy and timeliness of housing regulation as well as resolving social problems caused by gender imbalance and intensified marriage matching competition.