我国海洋经济韧性的时空演变特征及障碍诊断

Temporal and spatial characteristics of China’s marine economic resilience and its obstacle diagnosis

文章运用熵值法、障碍度模型揭示我国沿海地区2011-2020年海洋经济韧性的时空演变特征及阻碍韧性提升的主要障碍因子。结果发现:2011-2020年,我国海洋经济总体韧性波动上升;空间上韧性类型呈现点状与片状并存的分布特点;海洋经济低度韧性的空间分布无明显变化,较低度韧性、中度韧性分别显示由南向北转移、由北向南转移的迹象,较高度韧性呈现先由南向北再南移的趋势,而高度韧性起初体现“南中北均衡分布”特点,后向南收缩,最终又演变为“南北两极”的空间格局;海洋经济韧性主要受到适应能力和更新能力的影响,海洋科技创新成果、海洋经济对外开放程度、海洋经济发展配备的人力资源、海洋科技创新潜力、海洋资本投入量、沿海地区财政自给能力以及金融发展水平是阻碍海洋经济韧性提升的主要障碍因子。

This paper uses entropy method and obstacle model to reveal the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of marine economy resilience in coastal areas of China from 2011 to 2020,and the main obstacle factors that hinder the improvement of marine economy resilience. The spatial distribution of toughness types is characterized by the coexistence of point and sheet. Marine economy low toughness of no obvious change in spatial distribution, relatively low toughness, medium toughness shows that transfer from south to north, respectively, signs of transfer from north to south,relatively high toughness showed a trend of first moving from south to north and then south, and high tenacity "south north equilibrium distribution" embody characteristics at first, then to south contraction, and eventually evolved into "the north and south poles" spatial pattern;the resilience of the marine economy is mainly influenced by the ability to adapt and renew, marine science and technology innovation achievements, marine economic degree of opening to the outside world, marine economic development with human resources, marine science and technology innovation potential financial self-sufficiency, ocean capital inputs, coastal areas and the level of financial development is a major obstacle to hinder the ocean economic resilience factor.