新一轮技术革命与中国城市化2020~2050——影响、前景与战略

New Technological Revolution and China’s Urbanization 2020-2050: Impact, Prospect and Strategy

城市化与技术革命有着深刻的内在联系。技术革命对土地、资本、劳动力等生产要素进行革命性重组,成为了城市化的原动力。自18世纪以来,人类已经历了三次技术革命,分别是以机器生产为代表的第一次技术革命,以电力应用为标志的第二次技术革命,和以电子信息技术为标志的第三次技术革命。每一次技术革命都带来了产业变革和经济结构的调整升级,有力推动了城市化持续演进。进入新世纪以来,全球范围内开启新一轮技术革命的帷幕。新一轮技术革命以数字化为主导、以智能化为导向、以绿色化为引领、以融合化为趋势,使全球城市化出现新动力,提高了大都市区人口产业承载力,加快城市体系价值链分工深化,使城市生活方式加速向智能、包容和绿色转型,城市空间也更加优化,城市公共治理能力显著提高。改革开放40多年来,中国创造了世界城市化史上的奇迹。展望2050年,中国城市化质量和效率将明显提升、城市发展模式更加科学合理、城市治理能力显著增强,会出现一批世界级城市群和新全球城市。要抓住新一轮技术革命拓展期和中国经济社会结构转型升级的双重机遇,围绕“技术、要素、产业、制度”等核心动力机制协同推进,加快构建中国城市化高质量发展的动力系统。

Urbanization is deeply and intrinsically linked to the technological revolution. The technological revolution has revolutionarily reorganized the factors of production, such as land, capital and labor, and has become the driving force of urbanization. Since the 18th century, human beings have experienced three technological revolutions: the first technological revolution represented by machine production, the second technological revolution marked by the application of electricity, and the third technological revolution marked by information technology. Each technological revolution has brought about industrial changes and economic structure adjustments and upgrades, and has strongly promoted the continuous evolution of urbanization. Since the beginning of the new century, a new round of technological revolution has started globally. The new round of technological revolution is characterized by digitization, intelligence, greening, and integration. It has given new impetus to global urbanization, such as increasing the carrying capacity of population and industry in metropolitan areas, deepening the value chain division in urban systems, accelerating the transformation of urban lifestyle to more intelligent, inclusive and green, optimizing urban space, and significantly improving public governance of cities. Over the past 40 years of reform and opening up, China has created a miracle in the history of urbanization in the world. Looking ahead to 2050, the quality and efficiency of China’s urbanization will be significantly improved, the urban development model will be more scientific and rational, the urban governance capacity will be significantly enhanced, and a number of world-class city clusters and new global cities will emerge. It is necessary to seize the dual opportunities of the expansion of the new round of technological revolution and the transformation and upgrading of China’s economic structure, in order to accelerate the construction of a dynamic system for the high-quality development of China’s urbanization.