产业关联、区域边界与国内国际双循环相互促进——基于联立方程组模型的实证研究

Mutual Promotion of Dual Circulation of Domestic and Foreign Markets under the Influence of Industrial Linkage and Inter-provincial Boundary: An Empirical Study based on Simultaneous Equations Model

构建“以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进”的新发展格局是党中央的重要战略决策。本文基于中国各省工业子门类销售产值数据,结合区域间投入—产出表与海关进出口交易数据,构建了出口和进口两类国际大循环指标、国内销售和国内购买两类国内大循环指标,利用面板数据联立方程组模型定量检验了国内大循环与国际大循环之间的相互影响,并检验产业关联和区域边界在“双循环”中的作用。结果表明:国内大循环与国际大循环在总体上存在显著的双向促进效应;其中,工业行业的出口分别与国内中间投入的购买、国内跨省最终消费的销售之间存在显著的双向促进效应;最后,异质性分析结果支持了优化国内资源配置、促进国内贸易畅通的必要性。

It is an important strategic decision for China to accelerate the establishment of a "dual circulation" development in which domestic economic cycle plays a leading role while international economic cycle remains as extension and supplement. This paper quantitatively examines the interaction between domestic and international economic cycles using panel simultaneous equation model, based on four main indexes, namely export, import, domestic sales and domestic purchases, constructed from the value of output for sale, inter-provincial input-output linkage and international trade transactions at the province-manufacturing subcategory level. Moreover, this paper examines how industrial linkage and inter-provincial boundary influence the interaction within the "dual circulation". Results show that, there is a significant two-way promotion effect between domestic economic cycle and international economic cycle. Specifically, there is a two-way promotion effect between the industrial sector exports and the purchase of domestic intermediate inputs, and there is also a significant two-way promotion effect between the exports and the inter-provincial sales of domestic final consumption. Finally, results of heterogeneity test support the necessity of improving management of domestic resource allocation as well as promoting unimpeded domestic inter-provincial trade.