“碳中和”目标下深圳工业碳减排路径研究

Research on the Path of Shenzhen Industrial Emission Reduction Under the Goal of“Carbon Neutrality”

深圳工业碳排放量高、涉及门类复杂,需要充分认识其碳排放的特征与短板,尽快制定减排方案与具体路径。本文基于对深圳工业碳排放量的精确核算与碳排放影响因素的分解分析,揭示各影响因素对深圳工业碳排放的作用效果;并设置情景分析,得到深圳市工业碳减排的路径选择。本文的研究结果表明,深圳市工业碳排放整体呈现明显下降趋势,能源强度和碳排放系数是抑制深圳市碳排放的主要因素。就业人口、人均产出和包含技术进步的碳排放强度每增加1%时,深圳市工业碳排放分别增加0.484%、0.650%和0.879%。在低人口增长率、低人均产出增长率、高碳排放强度下降率的情景下,深圳可以实现不影响工业经济增长的减排目标。本文结果可以为深圳市工业“碳中和”路径选择提供参考。

Industrial carbon emissions in Shenzhen are high and involve complex categories,which is necessary to fully understand the characteristics and shortcomings of its carbon emissions,and timely formulate emission reduction plans and specific reduction paths.Based on the calculation of industrial carbon emissions and the decomposition of carbon emission influencing factors,this paper reveals the effect of various influencing factors on industrial carbon emissions,and set up scenario analysis to get the specific path of industrial emission reduction in Shenzhen.The research results indicate that,firstly,the overall industrial carbon emissions in Shenzhen show an obvious downward trend,and the energy intensity and carbon emission coefficient are the main factors to restrain the carbon emissions.Second,raising the employment population,per capita output and carbon emission intensity by 1%,the industrial carbon emissions in Shenzhen will increase by 0.484%,0.650%and 0.879%respectively.Under the scenario of low population growth rate,low per capita output growth rate and high carbon emission intensity decline rate,Shenzhen can achieve the emission reduction target that will not affect the industrial economic growth.The results of this paper will provide a theoretical reference for Shenzhen’s industrial“carbon neutralization”path.