中国制造业出口价格指数变化逻辑及实证分析

Logic and Empirical Analysis of China’s Manufacturing Export Price Index

中国经济经历几十年的高速增长后,经济体系日益完整,但也积累了一些结构性问题,因此我们在2015年底提出供给侧改革,这一改革对我国的制造业产品出口在全球产品价值链中的地位产生了深远影响。本文以能够体现我国制造业产品出口在全球产品价值链中地位的中国制造业出口价格指数为研究对象,分析其变化逻辑并进行计量分析,结果显示,决定其变化的主要因素是两个关键变量,一个是劳动力成本,另一个是出口至发展中国家的贸易份额,而制造业出口数量、大宗商品价格和出口分散程度并不会对其产生显著影响。最后从三个方面提出了相应的建议,以期对我国制造业出口价格指数朝着有利的方向发展提供一定的政策参考。

After decades of rapid growth in China’s economy,the whole economic system has become increasingly complete,but some structural problems have also accumulated.Therefore,we proposed the supply-side reform at the end of 2015,which has had a profound impact on the position of China’s manufacturing exports in the global product value chain.This paper focuses on the Chinese manufacturing export price index in the global value chain and the measurement analysis,the main factors are two key variables,one is labor cost,the other is exported to developing countries,and the manufacturing export quantity,commodity price and export dispersion will not significantly.Finally,the corresponding suggestions are put forward from three aspects,in order to provide some policy reference for the favorable development of the manufacturing export price index in China.