迁徙中国视野下我国县域人口流动状况与发展挑战

Study on Migration of China’s County and its Challenges from the Perspective of Migrating China

基于全国人口普查数据和全国1%抽样调查资料,从跨县流动和县内流动两方面,系统地梳理了2000年以来县域人口流动的现状特征和变化趋势。研究发现,我国县域人口跨县流动活跃性正迅速增强,净流出活跃型县域数量迅速增加,跨县流出人口规模迅速扩大,跨县流出人口的中老年化趋势明显、省内流动占比增加、流动原因趋于多元。与此同时,净流入活跃型县域和跨县流入人口的增长缓慢,跨县流入人口中,老年人占比有所下降、省内人口占比不断提高、社会型流动占比有所降低。我国县内流动人口规模止升趋降,乡城流动稳占主流,县内流动儿童和老人规模持续扩大,家庭、教育和宜居成为县内流动主要原因。我国县域已由乡土时代步入迁徙时代,人口流失加快了县域人口负增长转变,区域分化提升了分类治理难度,流留儿童带来学校教育和亲情双重挑战,流留老人增加提高了养老公共服务需求,人口流动重塑了县域家庭结构。基于此,要妥善应对县域人口流失、强化县域的分类施策和公共服务多样化供给。

Using the national census data and 1%sampling survey data,this paper systematically analyze the characteristics and trends of cross-county migration and intra-county migration in China’s county areas since 2000 by the method of migration and composite indexes.Results show that cross-county out-migration is enhanced.The number of counties with active net outflow is increasing rapidly.And there are more people moving out of county area,and more migrants are in their 40s and 50s.These out-migrants tend to intra-province migration,the reasons for migration are more diversified.Meanwhile,the growth of cross-county in-migrants is slow,more than half of them are from the same province,and the proportion of social migration is decreasing.On the other hand,intra-county migrants have stopped rising and tended to decline.The dominant role of rural-urban migration has been strengthened.Floating children and the elderly in county have continued increasing.Family,education and livability have become the main reasons for intra-county migrants.China’s counties have entered the era of highly active population movements,and start to face with problems of population loss,regional differentiation,floating children and the elderly,left-behind and floating families.China’s county should properly cope with the problem of population loss,strengthen the regional classification of policies and diversified supply of public services.