京津冀地区城市客运交通碳减排政策的成本效益分析

Cost-benefit analysis of carbon emission mitigation policies for urban passenger transport in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

客运交通在京津冀地区城市交通总量中占比高,其减排潜力是影响交通碳达峰的关键因素。本文建立了基于Agent建模与仿真方法的京津冀地区城市客运交通系统的模型,模拟了京津冀地区不同城市客运交通碳减排政策情景下消费者的交通出行行为,评估了各类碳减排政策的环境效益、经济成本及其对碳达峰的影响。结果显示:(1)乘用车燃料效能提升政策是唯一可以在2030年京津冀三地同时实现城市客运交通碳排放达峰的政策情景,且其碳减排的经济成本较低,其中天津市预计最先实现碳排放达峰,北京市次之,河北省最后;(2)公共交通推广政策的碳减排经济成本相对较高,尤其以河北省最为突出,虽然该政策可以在北京市和河北省实现城市客运交通碳排放达峰,但无法实现天津市碳排放达峰目标;(3)交通拥堵收费政策在京津冀三地单独实施无法实现碳排放达峰目标,需要与其他政策组合实施。基于此,京津冀三地实现客运交通碳排放达峰目标需要持续推进乘用车燃料效能的提升,此外还可以采取新能源汽车补贴、公共交通推广和交通拥堵收费等组合政策,以降低减排的经济成本。

Passenger transport accounts for a high proportion of the total traffic volume in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)region,and its emission reduction potential is a key factor affecting the peaking of traffic-related carbon emissions.This study established the urban passenger transport system model in the BTH region based on agent modeling and simulation method.It then simulated consumer’s travel behavior under different scenarios of urban passenger transport carbon emission reduction policies in the region,and evaluated the environmental benefits and economic costs of various carbon emission reduction policies and their impact on carbon peaking.The research results show that:(1)The policy of fuel efficiency improvement of passenger vehicles is the only policy scenario that can achieve the peaking of carbon emissions of urban passenger transport in the BTH region by 2030 with relatively low carbon emission reduction cost.Tianjin is expected to achieve the peaking of carbon emissions first,followed by Beijing,and Hebei Province will be the last.(2)The carbon emission reduction cost of public transport promotion policy is relatively high,especially in Hebei Province.Although the policy can also achieve the peaking of carbon emissions of urban passenger transport in Beijing Municipality and Hebei Province,it fails to achieve the goal of carbon emission peaking in Tianjin Municipality.(3)The transport congestion charge policy alone would not achieve the goal of carbon emission peaking,and it needs to be implemented in combination with other policies.To achieve the goal of passenger transport carbon emission peaking in the BTH region,it is necessary to continuously promote the policy of improving the fuel efficiency of passenger vehicles.It is also possible to adopt a combination of policies such as subsidies for new energy vehicles,public transport promotion,and transport congestion charges to reduce the economic cost of emission reduction.