欠发达地区旅游脱贫后返贫风险及防控机制

Risk and prevention mechanism of returning to poverty after poverty alleviation through tourism in underdeveloped areas

有效防控欠发达地区旅游脱贫后的返贫风险是稳固脱贫攻坚成果和实现乡村振兴的关键议题。本文基于脆弱性评价理论和全面风险管理理论,在构建旅游脱贫后的返贫风险理论框架及评价模型基础上,以大别山天柱山旅游片区为例,实证分析欠发达地区旅游脱贫后的返贫风险及内在驱动防控机制。结果发现:(1)欠发达旅游脱贫地区脱贫稳定性整体较高,旅游参与型农户相对于非旅游参与型农户具有更高脱贫稳定性和更低返贫风险,但随着旅游参与程度由低到高,脱贫家庭的返贫风险呈现U型变化,即高参与度农户亦会因受旅游业自身脆弱性影响而导致返贫风险反向拉升。(2)脱贫农户返贫风险影响因素包括内生性和突变性两类,对于不同类型旅游参与型脱贫农户而言,两类因素的作用程度也存在差异性。(3)健康冲击和人力资本对返贫风险起到关键性影响作用,并通过农户生计多样性和体现人格特质的非认知能力影响返贫风险;返贫风险具有空间异质性,旅游地风险防控能力和资源禀赋越高,农户返贫风险越低。(4)欠发达旅游地应构建以目标管理、组织层级、风险要素为框架,目标设定、综合管控、常态化治理、制度健全、信息沟通和协同监督为一体的返贫风险多维防控机制。本文可为中国欠发达地区返贫风险防控和乡村振兴提供有益的政策启示。

In order to stabilize the achievements of poverty alleviation and realize rural revitalization,it is a key issue to effectively prevent and control the risk of returning to poverty after tourism in underdeveloped areas.Based on the vulnerability assessment theory and comprehensive risk management theory,this study took tourism poverty alleviation in underdeveloped areas as the research background to construct the theoretical framework and evaluation model for the risk of returning to poverty,and used the Tianzhu Mountain tourism area in the Dabie Mountains as an example to empirically analyze the risk of returning to poverty and its internal driving and prevention and control mechanisms.The results show that in underdeveloped tourism poverty alleviation areas,the stability of poverty alleviation is generally high.Compared with non-tourism participating farmers,tourism participating farmers have higher stability of getting rid of poverty and lower risk of returning to poverty.But with the participation in tourism from low to high,the risk of returning to poverty shows a U-shaped change,that is,farmers with high participation can be affected by the vulnerability of tourism,which leads to a reverse increase in the risk of returning to poverty.Besides,the influencing factors of the risk of returning to poverty include endogenous and sudden onset factors.For different types of poverty alleviation farmers with tourism participation,the effects of the two factors are also different.For tourism participating farmers,on the one hand,health impact and human capital play a key role in the risk of returning to poverty,and affect it through the diversity of farmers’livelihood and non-cognitive ability reflecting personality traits.On the other hand,the risk of returning to poverty has spatial heterogeneity.The higher the risk prevention and control ability and resource endowment of tourist destinations,the lower the risk of returning to poverty of farmers.Finally,underdeveloped tourism areas should build a multi-dimensional prevention and control mechanism for the risk of returning to poverty,which takes target management,organizational level and risk factors as the framework,goal setting,comprehensive management and control,normalized governance,system improvement,information communication and collaborative supervision as one.This study can provide beneficial policy enlightenment for the risk of returning to poverty prevention and control and rural revitalization in less developed regions of China.