人民币汇率变化对我国投资东南亚贸易的影响

The Impact of RMB Exchange Rate Changes on China’s Investment in Southeast Asia Trade

本文利用面板模型,以中国和东南亚的直接投资为例,回顾从2005年人民币汇率改革开始,人民币汇率变动对中国外商直接投资的影响。实证结果显示:人民币升值推动中国在东南亚的贸易投资,同时国内生产总值的提高会对我国投资东南亚贸易产生正面影响,即中国经济实力的上升促进了中国企业“走出去”;人民币升值对新加坡的贸易投资效应较强烈,且存在一定的滞后性。基于此,本文认为中国企业应把握好人民币加入SDR带来的机遇,加快人民币市场化和国际化进程,与此同时中国需要有效管理汇率的预期和控制人民币汇率的波动性,这对促进人民币的国际化进程具有一定的启示和借鉴意义。

Using a panel model,this paper reviews the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on China’s foreign direct investment(FDI)since the RMB exchange rate reforms in 2005,taking direct investment in China and Southeast Asia as an example.The empirical results show that the appreciation of RMB promotes China’s trade investment in Southeast Asia,and the increase in GDP will have a positive impact on China’s investment in Southeast Asia,i.e.,the rise of China’s economic strength promotes Chinese enterprises to“go global”;the trade and investment effect of RMB appreciation on Singapore is more prominent,and there is a certain lag.Based on this,this paper argues that Chinese enterprises should seize the opportunities brought by the RMB’s accession to SDR and accelerate the marketization and internationalization of RMB,while China needs to effectively manage exchange rate expectations and control the volatility of the RMB exchange rate,which has certain inspirations and implications for promoting the internationalization of RMB.