基于多区域投入产出模型的长江经济带隐含碳排放研究

Research on Embodied Carbon Emissions of Yangtze River Economic Belt Based on Multi-regional Input-output Model

本文依托多区域投入产出模型(MRIO),研究了长江经济带11个地区(9省2市)的贸易隐含碳排放变化并对长江经济带东、中、西部地区绝对碳排放强度及相对碳排放强度进行估计。研究结果显示:2012—2017年长江经济带贸易隐含碳排放量总体呈上升趋势,且消费端碳排放的增长速度大于生产端碳排放的增长速度,劳动密集型制造业生产是造成这一现象的最主要原因;东部地区依旧是长江经济带相互贸易往来的最大受益者,而中部地区的优势逐渐被西部地区所取代。未来,长江经济带应当实行差异化的节能减排政策,中西部地区亟需实现向绿色制造转变以及生产型制造向服务型制造的转变。而东部地区则有必要加快能源结构调整、提高能源使用效率,同时促进能源系统高质量发展。

Relying on the multi-regional input-output model(MRIO),this paper studies the change in trade embodied carbon emissions in 11 regions(9 provinces and 2 cities)of the Yangtze River Economic Belt and estimates the absolute carbon emission intensity and the relative carbon emission intensity of the east,middle and west regions of the Yangtze River Economic Belt.The results of the study show that from 2012 to 2017 the overall embodied carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt show a growing trend,and the growth rate of carbon emissions at the consumer end is greater than that of carbon emissions at the production end,and labor-intensive manufacturing production is the main cause of this phenomenon;the eastern region remains the biggest beneficiary of mutual trade along the Yangtze River Economic Belt,while the advantage of the central region is gradually replaced by the western region.In the future,differentiated energy conservation and emission reduction policies should be implemented in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.The central and western regions need to realize the transformation to green manufacturing and the transformation from production manufacturing to service manufacturing,while it is necessary for the eastern region to accelerate the adjustment of energy structure,improve energy efficiency,and promote the high-quality development of the energy system.