动态可靠度小样本评估方法

Dynamic Reliability Assessment Method with Small Sample

针对结构健康监测中动态可靠度难以评估的问题,提出一种动态可靠度小样本评估方法,给出了程序块谱下高置信度的可靠寿命计算公式,建立了程序块谱、一般载荷和复杂情况下高置信度的可靠度计算公式,既能够对产品设计寿命下的可靠度进行评估,也能够根据单个产品在使用过程中完成的不同任务、对应的不同载荷,实时评估其动态可靠度,实现单机健康状态监控。传统方法通常采用干涉模型计算动态可靠度,这需要确定损伤量分布和抗损伤强度分布,不但导致难度大误差大,而且还无法实现单机健康状态在线实时监控,本文方法克服了传统方法的缺点。文中还建立了小样本测试方法,能够对产品、模拟件或材料的高置信度高可靠度的性能曲线进行小样本测试,从而实现产品高置信度的动态可靠度小样本评估。

This paper proposes a small-sample dynamic reliability assessment method for the dynamic reliability assessment challenges in structural health monitoring.The reliable life calculation formulas with high confidence are given under program block spectrums.And the reliability calculation formulas with high confidence are established under program block spectrums,general loads,and complicated situations.On this basis,product reliability at design life can be evaluated.In addition,each product’s dynamic reliability can also be assessed in real-time according to its different tasks and corresponding loads during service,by which product health monitoring is realized.In traditional methods,interference models are generally applied for the dynamic reliability calculation,and the damage distribution and the anti-damage strength distribution need to be determined.It leads to great difficulty and error,and cannot realize online real-time health monitoring of a single product.This paper overcomes traditional methods’shortcomings.Besides,a small-sample performance curves test method is also established for products,simulators,or materials with high confidence and reliability to realize product’s small-sample dynamic reliability assessment with high confidence.