数字普惠金融如何影响农业产出:事实、机制和政策含义

How Digital Financial Inclusion Affects Agricultural Output:Facts,Mechanism and Policy Implications

为打赢脱贫攻坚战,助力乡村振兴战略,我国政府积极推进数字农业农村建设,推广农村数字普惠金融服务。本文使用2014—2018年北京大学数字普惠金融指数以及中国县域统计年鉴数据,采用双重固定效应和工具变量模型,实证研究了农村数字普惠金融对农业产出的影响及其内在机制。研究发现数字普惠金融的发展显著提高了农业产出,这主要是由于农作物播种面积的增加和农业机械利用率的提高,而不是农业人口的增加。通过地区和农作物种类的异质性分析发现:数字普惠金融对西部地区、山地地区的农业产出促进作用更大;相比于肉类,数字普惠金融对于粮食类作物、油类作物、棉花类作物的产量具有更大的正面影响。因此,本文建议政府进一步提高农村数字普惠金融的覆盖广度和使用深度,继续完善西部欠发达地区的农村数字金融服务建设。

In order to win the battle against poverty and support the rural revitalization strategy,the Chinese government actively promotes the construction of digital agricultural and rural digital inclusive financial services.Based on the 2014-2018 Peking University Digital Financial Inclusive Index and China County Statistical Yearbook data,this paper uses dual fixed effects and instrumental variable models to empirically study the impact of rural digital financial inclusion on agricultural output and its internal mechanism.This paper found that the development of digital financial inclusion has significantly increased agricultural output,which is mainly due to the increase in crop sown area and the utilization of agricultural machinery,rather than the increase in agricultural population.Through the analysis of the heterogeneity of regions and crop types,this paper also found that digital financial inclusion has a greater role in promoting agricultural output in the western region and mountainous regions;Compared with meat,digital financial inclusion has a greater impact on food crops,oils and cotton crops.Therefore,it is recommended that the government should further increase the coverage and use depth of rural digital financial inclusion,and continue to improve the construction of rural digital financial services in underdeveloped areas in the western region.