基于模糊认知图的通用航空事故机理分析

Analysis on the cause prediction of general aviation accidents based on fuzzy cognitive map

随着通用航空业迅猛发展,通用航空事故数逐年增多,为了更有效地预测和防止事故发生,减少生命财产的损失,对事故原因预测显得尤为重要。通过对2006—2015年10年间通用航空事故原因的统计与分类,建立起模糊认知图预测模型,依据模糊认知图的计算方法得到系统达到稳定之后各个影响因素的状态值,通过关联度的计算,得到通用航空事故影响因素的排序,最终得到导致通用航空事故的主要因素。使用实例进行验证对比分析后发现该方法对于通用航空事故原因预测是可行的,通过该方法可以成功地预测通用航空事故发生的主要原因。

With the rapid development of general aviation industry,the number of general aviation accidents increases year by year.In order to effectively predict and prevent accidents,reduce the loss of life and property,it is particularly important to predict the cause of accidents.Through the statistics and classification of the causes of general aviation accidents in the ten years from 2006 to 2015,the fuzzy cognitive map prediction model is established.According to the calculation method of fuzzy cognitive map,the state values of each factor can be obtained after the system reaches the stability.By calculating the correlation degree,the order of influencing factors of general aviation accidents is obtained,and finally the main factors leading to general aviation accidents are obtained.It is found that this method is feasible to predict the causes of general aviation accidents after verification and analysis with examples,and the main causes of general aviation accidents can be successfully predicted by this method.