基于灰色Verhulst-Markov改进模型的软件缺陷预测研究

A Study on Software Defect Prediction Based on Improved Gray Verhulst-Markov Model

软件缺陷技术在软件质量领域具有非常重要的地位。文中认为软件缺陷增长可依据动因分为确定性和随机性两个部分,在此基础上提出对软件确定性增长缺陷应用灰色Verhulst改进模型,同时利用马尔可夫链理论修正随机性增长缺陷,并对这种预测模型的可行性进行验证。由于融合灰色Verhulst预测和马尔可夫预测,所提算法兼具两者优点,具有较高的预测效果,在一定程度上度量软件开发过程,较好地帮助提升软件质量。

Software defect technology plays a great role in the field of software quality. Based on the reason for software defects′ increase, this paper indicates that the increase of software defects can be divided into the determination increase and the random increase. The improved gray Verhulst-Markov model is utilized to predict the determination increase of software defects, and the Markov chain theory is used to revise the fluctuation caused by software defects of the random increase. The results show that this prediction model with the advantages of gray Verhulst model and Markov model, is valid and of high precision.It can guide software organizations to better grasp software quality, reasonably allocate testing resources, and help software organizations measure software processes to a certain extent.