我国“政府主导-社会参与”救灾体制改革的演化路径分析

Evolutionary Analysis of the Multiple Reform Paths of Chinese“Government-leading and Social-involvement”Disaster Relief Model

《关于推进防灾减灾救灾机制体制改革的意见》提出我国救灾工作要“坚持党委领导、政府主导、社会力量和市场机制广泛参与”,但推动改革的具体实施路径尚在探索中。通过归纳中西方两种典型救灾体制的优缺点,构建政府救援部门和社会力量协同救灾的演化博弈分析框架,论证了“政府主导-社会参与”救灾体制改革的多重演化路径、均衡条件和关键影响因素。研究表明,政府与社会力量的协同救援效应和救援工作的阶段特征,是决定救灾体制演化的两个关键性因素。在推进传统救灾模式到理想救灾模式的体制演化过程中,存在“双轨制”协调博弈或“一抓就死、一放就活”周期解等过渡状态的多条演化路径。救灾模式需要随救灾工作的阶段转换进行调整。

China’s disaster relief work should form a model of“Guided by the party committee,led by the government,participated by social forces and market mechanisms extensively”.This paper summarizes the advantages and disadvantages of government-leading and social-leading(“government-social”)disaster relief model.On this basis,the evolutionary game model is constructed to analyze the equilibrium conditions and key influencing factors for the formation of the government-socialmodel.The research shows that the cooperative rescue effect and the sustained stages of disasters relief are the two key factors that determine the evolution of relief model.In the process of institutional evolution from the traditional government-leading model to the ideal“government-social”model,there are several evolutionary paths,such as coordinated game of“double-track system”or periodic solution.Unilaterally relying on the government to promote the reform of the disaster relief system will fall into the long-term coexistence of the old and new systems with the solidified sector interests,thus we need to encourage social forces to participate in the disaster relief to force the reform.With the development from the stage of emergency rescue to transitional resettlement and post-disaster reconstruction,the mode of disaster relief needs to be gradually transformed into that of“government-leading and social-involvement”.