基于夜间灯光数据的长江经济带经济发展与生态环境承载力关系分析

Analysis on Relationship Between Economic Development and Eco-environmentalCarrying Capacity of Yangtze River Economic Zone Based on Nighttime Light Data

通过对DMSP/OLS和NPP/VIIRS两种夜间灯光影像数据进行提取校正,测度长时间序列长江经济带经济发展水平;在此基础上利用耦合协调度模型分析长江经济带经济发展与生态环境承载力耦合协调时空变化规律、区域差异及空间溢出效应。研究发现:1998~2019年长江经济带经济发展与生态环境承载力之间的耦合协调程度稳步提升,由中度失调阶段升级到拮抗阶段。在区域差异上,耦合协调水平总体空间差异处于“趋同-分异-趋同”不断调整的过程中,总体空间差异主要源自于区域间差异,而区域间差异主要来自上下游之间差异;在空间格局上,耦合协调水平表现出显著的空间集聚效应,各省市呈现出多极分化趋势。通过分析耦合协调水平的溢出效应发现,富裕程度、创新投入、外商投资、环境规制有利于提升本地耦合协调水平,产业结构、人口规模对本地耦合协调水平具有显著抑制作用;产业结构、外商投资和人口规模通过正向溢出效应对邻近地区耦合协调水平产生推动作用。

By extracting and correcting DMSP/OLS and NPP/VIIRS nighttime light data,this paper measures the economic development level of the Yangtze River Economic Zone in a long time series.The coupling coordination degree model is used to calculate the coupling coordination between economic development and ecoenvironmental carrying capacity of the Yangtze River Economic Zone,and its spatial-temporal variation,regional difference and spatial spillover effect are analyzed.The results show that the degree of coupling coordination increases steadily from moderate imbalance stage to antagonistic stage from 1998 to 2019.In terms of regional difference,the overall spatial difference of coupling coordination level is in the process of continuous adjustment of“convergence-differentiation-convergence”.The overall spatial difference is mainly derived from the interregional differences,and the inter-regional differences are mainly from the differences between upstream and downstream of the Yangtze River Economic Zone.In the spatial pattern,the coupling coordination level shows a significant spatial agglomeration effect,and 11 provinces show a trend of multi-polar differentiation.By analyzing the spillover effect of coupling coordination level,it is found that the degree of wealth,innovation investment,foreign investment and environmental regulation are beneficial to the improvement of local coupling coordination level,and industrial structure and population scale have a significant inhibitory effect on the local coupling coordination level.Industrial structure,foreign investment and population scale promote the coupling coordination level of adjacent areas through positive spillover effect.