长江经济带旅游产业效率评价及其时空动态演变

Evaluation and Temporal-spatial Dynamic Evolution of Tourism IndustryEcoefficiency in Yangtze River Economic Belt

长江经济带作为旅游业的重要发展轴线,其旅游业的提质增效已成为全社会关注的焦点。基于2002~2019年长江经济带110个城市的面板数据,借助DEA模型对各城市旅游产业效率进行测定,在时间序列分析和空间关联检验基础上,使用传统和空间马尔可夫链,分析长江经济带旅游产业效率的时空动态演变特征。结果表明:(1)整体上长江经济带旅游产业效率处于较低水平,且呈现波动中缓慢下降的趋势,旅游业发展过程中仍存在较大的技术进步和资源节约空间;总体上长江经济带旅游产业效率空间格局呈现“周高中低”特征,东部和西部地区旅游产业效率高于中部地区。(2)长江经济带旅游产业效率具有维持原有状态的稳定性,整体上向低水平转移的概率大于向高水平转移的概率,且发生跨越式转移的概率极低。(3)地理背景对长江经济带旅游产业效率动态演变影响显著,旅游产业效率较高的城市带动周边城市向上转移的概率增大,而旅游产业效率较低的城市会抑制周围城市向上转移,从而逐渐形成“高高集聚、高带动低”的“俱乐部收敛”现象。

As an important development axis of tourism in China,the improvement of tourism quality and efficiency has become the focus of attention of the whole society.Based on the panel data of 110 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2002 to 2019,this paper uses DEA model to measure the efficiency of tourism industry in each city.On the basis of time series analysis and spatial correlation analysis,the spatial and temporal dynamic evolution characteristics of tourism industry efficiency of cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt are discussed by using traditional and spatial Markov chains.The results show that:(1)On the whole,the tourism industry efficiency in the Yangtze River Economic Belt is at a low level and shows a trend of slow decline in fluctuation.There is still a great space for technological progress and resource conservation in the process of tourism development.On the whole,the spatial pattern of tourism industry efficiency in the Yangtze River Economic Belt shows the characteristics of“zhou high,middle and low”,and the efficiency of tourism industry in the eastern and western regions is higher than that in the central region.(2)The efficiency of the tourism industry in the Yangtze River Economic Belt has the stability of maintaining the original state,and the probability of transferring to the low level is slightly higher than the probability of transferring to the high level on the whole,and the probability of leapfrog transfer is extremely low.(3)Geographical background of the tourism industry in the Yangtze River Economic Belt had a great effect on efficiency of dynamic evolution,drive the surrounding city tourism industry due to its high efficiency city upward shift probability increases,and the tourism industry efficiency low cities around inhibits shift upwards,and gradually formed the high concentration,high drive low“club convergence”phenomenon.