长三角地区生态韧性时空变化及影响因素分析

Spatial-temporal Analysis and Influencing Factors ofEcological Resilience in Yangtze River Delta

城市生态韧性建设是长三角地区高质量一体化发展的关键问题。从抵抗力、适应力、恢复力三维度出发构建生态韧性评价模型,对2011~2019年长三角地区城市生态韧性的时空演变特征进行研究;并运用STIRPAT扩展模型和时空地理加权回归模型(GTWR)分析生态韧性影响因素的时空异质性,从而为实现长三角城市生态韧性的提高提供指导。结果表明:(1)2011~2019年长三角城市生态韧性指数总体呈波动上升趋势,波动下降或停滞型城市数量占比小,波动低速上升型城市占据主导地位;城市生态韧性抵抗力高于适应力和恢复力,研究期间生态韧性抵抗力呈波动下降趋势,适应力和恢复力波动上升。(2)长三角城市群生态韧性高指数区经历了“整体分散局部集聚——小集聚大分散——小集聚大分散程度加强——多地集聚”,中低韧性区覆盖范围始终较大,长三角城市生态韧性仍有较大提升空间。(3)GTWR模型检验结果表明,影响因素之间存在明显的时空差异,不同区域内影响因素的作用强度和波动方向各不相同。

Urban ecological resilience construction is the key for the high-quality integrated development of the Yangtze River Delta.This paper constructs an ecological resilience evaluation model from the three dimensions of resistance,adaptability and recovery to study the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of urban ecological resilience in the Yangtze River Delta from 2011 to 2019;and analyzes the spatial-temporal heterogeneity of ecological resilience influencing factors by using the geographically and temporally weighted regression(GTWR)and STIRPAT(the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population,Affluence,and Technology)extended models.The results show that:(1)From 2011 to 2019,the ecological resilience index of Yangtze River Delta cities showed an overall fluctuating upward trend,with the number of fluctuating declining or stagnant cities accounting for a small proportion and the fluctuating low-rate rising cities dominating;the resistance of ecological resilience of cities was higher than the adaptability and recovery,and the resistance of ecological resilience showed a fluctuating downward trend during the study period while the adaptability and recovery fluctuated upward.(2)The ecological resilience high value zone of the Yangtze River Delta experienced the evolution process of“overall dispersion and partial agglomeration-small agglomeration and large dispersion-small agglomeration and large dispersion strengthening-Multi-location clustering”.(3)The results of the GTWR model showed that there were obvious spatial and temporal differences among the influencing factors,and the intensity and fluctuation direction of the influencing factors varied in different regions.