我国工业比重变化趋势的再探讨——基于合成控制法的经验分析

Rediscussing the Change of China’s Industrial Proportion——Empirical Analysis Based on Synthetic Control Method

工业比重下降是我国近年来产业结构变化的重要特征,引发了学界和社会的广泛关注。本文利用合成控制法和世界60个经济体的数据样本,重新探讨了我国工业比重的变化趋势。研究结果显示,近年来我国工业比重下降速度相对较快,且各地区的情况存在异质性,这既为客观看待我国工业比重下降现象提供了经验证据,也为保持制造业比重基本稳定、发挥制造业在推动高质量发展和构建新发展格局中的关键作用提供了理论支持。建议因地制宜制定产业政策和调整经济发展方向,结合经济发展阶段和当地比较优势合理推动产业结构升级,持续壮大工业新动能。

The decline of industrial proportion is a significant feature of China’s industrial structure change in recent years,which has aroused the wide attention of academia and the society.Using synthetic control method and the data samples of 60 economies in the world,this paper rediscusses the change of China’s industrial proportion.The results indicate that China’s industrial proportion has been declining relatively fast in recent years,and the situations of different regions are heterogeneous,which provides empirical evidence for viewing the phenomenon of the decline of China’s industrial proportion objectively,and also provides theoretical support for keeping the proportion of manufacture industry basically stable,playing the crucial role of manufacture industry in promoting the high-quality development and constructing the new development paradigm.It suggests that formulating industrial policies and adjusting economic development direction on the basis of local condition,rationally promoting the upgrading of industrial structure combined with the economic development stage and local comparative advantages,and strengthening the new drivers of industrial economics continuously.