新型电力系统风险评估研究现状及展望

Research Status and Prospect of New-type Power System Risk Assessment

随着高比例新能源的接入,新型电力系统惯量持续下降,动态特性发生变化,电网的安全稳定运行风险日益突出。风险评估能够量化电力系统风险,是电力系统安全分析的必要环节和可靠保障。因此,为了深入探究风险评估在新型电力系统背景下的研究方法,总结归纳了近年国内外有关风险评估的研究成果,重点分析了新型电力系统背景下风险评估的理论研究成果。首先,由于元件级风险建模是电力系统风险评估的基础,依据“源网荷储”模式,从能源侧、电网侧、负荷侧、储能侧4侧风险建模分别展开讨论。其次,以元件级风险建模为基础,从系统级风险分析、风险评估指标体系、风险调控方法 3个方面围绕着风险评估核心算法和计算效率、多层次概率指标体系等进行综述。最后,归纳提出了新型电力系统风险评估存在的关键性问题及其未来可能的研究方向。

Along with the access of a high proportion of renewable energy, the inertia of the new-type power system continues to decline, the dynamic characteristics will qualitatively change, and the safe and stable operation of the power grid is affected. Risk assessment can quantify risks of the power system and is a reliable guarantee for power system security analysis. Therefore, to deeply explore the research methods of risk assessment in the context of new-type power system, this paper summaries the research results of risk assessment in recent years, and emphatically analyzes the theoretical research results of risk assessment in the context of new-type power systems. Firstly, according to the “source-gridload-storage” model, the risk modeling of energy side, grid side, load side, and storage side is discussed separately, since component-level risk modeling is the basis of power system risk assessment. Secondly, based on the component-level risk modeling, this paper reviews the core algorithm and calculation efficiency of risk assessment, and multi-level probability index system from the three aspects of system-level risk analysis, risk assessment index system, and risk control methods.Finally, the key issues and possible future research directions of new-type power system risk assessment are summarized.