黄河流域人口老龄化时空差异及驱动因素研究

Research on spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of population agingin the Yellow River Basin

为探究人口老龄化的驱动机制,破解未富先老的窘境,本文利用ESDA分析2000—2020年黄河流域人口老龄化时空格局演变特征及驱动因素,以促进黄河流域的高质量发展。结果表明:(1)黄河流域人口老龄化逐渐加深,呈现出自西向东的阶梯式上升格局;(2)黄河流域人口老龄化呈正向空间相关性,形成以高高和低低聚集为主的空间格局,其中,高高聚集主要分布于山东,而低低聚集主要分布于青海;(3)人口因素是黄河流域人口老龄化的格局演变的直接原因,而社会经济因素是其根本原因。因此,从这两个维度提出黄河流域积极应对人口老龄化的若干建议,例如:坚持全面二孩政策,促进三孩政策落地,适当提高生育率;依托黄河流域城镇群,吸引劳动力回流;建立跨区域养老协调机制,实现联合养老;大力发展老龄教育,充分开发老龄人力资源。

In order to explore the driving mechanism for population aging and solve the dilemma of getting old before getting rich,this paper uses ESDA to analyze the evolution characteristics and driving factors of the spatial and temporal pattern for population aging in the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2020,so as to promote the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin.The results show that:(1)During the period 2000—2020,the population aging in the Yellow River Basin gradually deepened,showing a pattern of rising steps from west to east.(2)The population aging in the Yellow River Basin showed a positive spatial correlation,forming the spatial distribution characteristics of high-high and low-low similarity aggregation;the high-high agglomeration is mainly distributed in Shandong Province,while the low-low agglomeration is mainly distributed throughout Qinghai Province.(3)The evolution of the pattern of population aging in the Yellow River Basin is mainly driven by demographic factors and socioeconomic factors.Demographic factors are the direct cause,while socioeconomic factors the fundamental cause.Therefore,suggestions for actively responding to population aging are proposed from two dimensions,such as:continuing to implement the universal two-child policy,promoting the implementation of the three-child policy,and appropriately increasing the fertility rate;relying closely on the Yellow River Basin urban agglomeration and attracting young talents to return home;establishing a cross-regional coordination mechanism for endowment;developing education and human resources for the elderly.