可持续背景下黄河下游地区适度人口现状分析

Analysis on the current situation of optimum population in the lowerreaches of the Yellow River in the context of sustainable

为促进黄河下游地区高质量发展,探究其合理的人口规模,缓解其人地矛盾是重要研究内容。本文基于适度人口理论,综合经济、社会、资源、环境等多元因素,通过可能-满意度(P-S)模型测算2010-2018年黄河下游19地市P-S为0.6、0.7、0.8、0.9的适度人口规模与密度,从时空维度探索其适度人口分布现状,并将其常住人口密度与适度人口密度对比,分析其人口压力状况。分析发现:①黄河下游地区适度人口总规模不断扩大,适度人口偏向于南多北少,大致呈“大分散,小集中”的态势,潍坊、滨州、东营适度人口密度低,人口较为稀疏;②黄河下游地区适度人口规模与密度空间分布不一,莱芜、鹤壁、濮阳适度人口规模较小,但适度人口密度较高;③黄河下游地区人口压力西高东低,随时间推移,逐渐沿河呈带状分布;④大多地市人口压力逐渐减小,但仍为适度偏高型,仅东营人口压力一直为适度偏低型,人口压力相对较低;⑤公共交通不完善、医疗床位不足等成为制约黄河下游大多地市适度人口规模的重要因素,GDP、R&D经费支出、废水排放量在一定程度上制约适度人口规模。

In order to promote the high-quality development,the optimum population scale should be explored to alleviate the contradiction of man-land relationship in the lower reaches of the Yellow River.Based on the theory of optimum population,taking into account economy,society,resources and environment,this paper constructs the possibility-satisfiability(P-S)model to calculate the optimum population size and optimum population density under the P-S level of 0.6,0.7,0.8 and 0.9 in 19 cities in the lower reaches of the Yellow River during 2010-2018,and then explores the current situation of optimum population distribution from the dimension of space-time in the lower reaches of the Yellow River.Finally,this paper analyzes the population pressure situation in the lower reaches of the Yellow River by comparing the resident population density with the optimum population density.Relative findings are as follows.First,the optimum population in the lower reaches of the Yellow River has been expanding continuously,and it tends to be more in the south and less in the north,generally showing a pattern of large dispersion and small concentration.Weifang,Binzhou,and Dongying have low optimum population density and sparse population.Second,the spatial distribution of optimum population scale and density is different in the lower reaches of the Yellow River.The optimum population scale is smaller in Laiwu,Hebi and Puyang,but the optimum population density is higher.Third,the population pressure in the lower reaches of the Yellow River is high in the west and low in the east,and gradually distributed in a zonal pattern along the river over time.Fourth,the population pressure of most prefecture-level cities is gradually decreasing,but it is still too high,while Dongying has been relatively low and insufficient.Fifth,the imperfect public transportation and the lack of medical beds have become the important factors restricting the optimum population scale of most prefecture-level cities in the lower reaches of the Yellow River.GDP,R&D expenditure and waste water discharge restrict the optimum population scale to a certain extent.