资源型城市经济发展质量与生态环境压力脱钩关系研究——以攀枝花市为例

Research on the decoupling relationship between economic development qualityand eco-environmental pressure in resource-based cities:a case study of Panzhihua City

为研究资源型城市经济发展质量和生态环境压力之间的脱钩关系,以攀枝花为例,选取多个指标构建经济发展质量和生态环境压力指标体系,采用熵值法和线性加权法计算权重,再用脱钩弹性系数法对二者的脱钩关系进行分析,通过灰色预测模型对未来6年的经济发展质量和生态环境压力指数及其脱钩关系进行预测。结果表明,2011—2020年攀枝花的经济发展质量持续提升、生态环境压力先上升再下降。除了有两个时段是增长负脱钩外,经济发展质量和生态环境压力间的关系都是脱钩的。未来6年,攀枝花的经济发展质量和生态环境压力指数发展势态好,脱钩关系都为强脱钩。

In order to study the decoupling relationship between economic development quality and ecological environment pressure of resource-based cities,taking Panzhihua as an example,several indexes are selected to construct the index system for economic development quality and ecological environment pressure.The entropy method and the linear weighting method are used to calculate the weight,with the decoupling elasticity coefficient method used to analyze the decoupling relationship between the two methods.The grey forecasting model is used to predict the economic development quality and ecological environment pressure index and their decoupling relationship in the next six years.The results show that the economic development quality of Panzhihua increased continuously from 2011 to 2020,and that the ecological environment pressure increased first and then decreased.The relationship between economic development quality and ecological environment pressure is decoupling except for two periods of negative decoupling.In the next 6 years,Panzhihua’s economic development quality and ecological environment pressure index will develop well,with the decoupling relationship strongly decoupling.