美联储货币政策正常化进程及其对油气价格的影响

Analysis of the impact of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy normalization on oil and gas prices

上一轮美联储货币政策正常化进程发生在2008年金融危机后。美联储货币政策正常化进程包括缩减购债规模、加息和缩表三个阶段,政策调整节奏主要考虑经济增长、就业和通胀三个指标。货币政策收紧对国际大宗商品、美国长期利率、美元指数都将产生显著影响,且呈现预期先行的特点。北京时间2021年11月5日,本轮美联储货币政策正常化进程正式启动。本轮美联储货币政策正常化进程明显快于上一轮,并持续加速推进。受全球通胀高企、地缘政治冲突的影响,一方面国际油气市场供需基本面总体偏紧,另一方面大宗商品抗通胀的特性得到放大,不断循环推升自身价格,油气价格并未在本轮美联储货币政策正常化进程中出现大幅下跌行情。从金融视角看,在当前加息频率下,基准情景下2023年年中国际油气价格才存在回落的可能性。

After the last round of the Federal Reserve monetary policy normalization took place in 2008.The process of monetary policy normalization of the Federal Reserve includes such three stages as reducing the scale of bond purchases,raising interest rates,and reducing the form.The pace of policy adjustment mainly considers economic growth,employment,and inflation.The tightening of monetary policy will have a significant impact on international commodities,the US long-term interest rates,and the US dollar index,and the impact of anticipation predates the specific policy.On November 5,2021 Beijing time,this round of the Federal Reserve monetary policy normalization process officially started.The normalization process of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy in this round was significantly faster than that in the previous round,and continued to accelerate.Affected by the high global inflation and geopolitical conflicts,on the one hand,the supply and demand fundamentals of the international oil and gas market is generally tight and on the other hand,the anti-inflation characteristics of bulk commodities have been amplified,constantly pushing up their own prices.Therefore,oil and gas prices did not fall sharply during the normalization of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.From a financial perspective,international oil and gas prices are not likely to fall until mid-2023 in the benchmark scenario under the current interest rate increase frequency.