省际扶贫政策中的政府财政支出乘数效应研究——对新疆大型对口帮扶实践的实证分析

Research on the Multiplier Effect of Government Expenditure in InterProvincial Poverty Alleviation Policies:Empirical Analysis of Large-Scale Counterpart Assistance Practice in Xinjiang

省际横向对口帮扶是中国脱贫攻坚实践中的重要创新。利用这一政策影响,基于中国民族地区473个县市2004—2016年观测数据,本文采用双重差分模型评估了中国民族地区省际扶贫政策中的政府财政支出乘数效应。研究发现:新疆受援地区县市政府整体支出乘数小于1,表明政府支出的综合效率有待提升。进一步研究表明,来自东中部支援方的财政帮扶和企业帮扶可以发挥更佳的乘数效应,并且相较于社会力量(企业)帮扶,政府财政资金的帮扶乘数效应更大(大于1)。这意味着,省际扶贫政策发挥了积极成效。此外,还探讨了影响乘数效应的外部基础条件,发现地区初始禀赋条件是制约乘数效应的重要因素,因而政府应比市场主体更早介入帮扶活动,改善欠发达地区的基础条件,使其突破门槛限制。研究结果不仅为民族地区的扶贫成效提供了新证据,也为新发展阶段欠发达地区更有效地推进乡村振兴和实现共同富裕提供了可借鉴的实践启示和可能的路径优化方向。

Inter-provincial horizontal pairing assistance is an important innovation in China’s poverty alleviation practice.Taking advantage of this policy shock,this paper uses a double-difference model to evaluate the multiplier effect of inter-provincial poverty alleviation policies in China’s border minority areas,based on the observation data of 473counties and cities in western China’s ethnic minority areas from 2004to 2016.The study finds that the overall expenditure multiplier in the aided areas of Xinjiang is less than 1,indicating that the comprehensive efficiency of government expenditure needs to be improved.Further research shows that financial assistance and corporate assistance from the eastern and central regions can play a better multiplier effect,and compared with social forces assistance(enterprise assistance),the assistance multiplier effect of government financial funds is greater(more than 1).This means that the inter-provincial poverty alleviation policy has played a significant role.In addition,this paper finds that the initial endowment of the region is an important factor of restricting the multiplier effect,so the government should intervene in assistance activities earlier than the market players,and improve the basic conditions of underdeveloped regions to overcome initial barriers.The research provides not only new evidence for the effectiveness of poverty alleviation in ethnic areas,but practical inspiration and directions for optimizing potential path for underdeveloped areas in the new development stage to more effectively promote rural revitalization and achieve common prosperity.