中国省份要素替代弹性估计及增长效应研究

Research on Estimating the Elasticity of Factor Substitution and Analyzing Its Growth Effect in China

近年来,伴随中国要素分配格局的变动及经济增速的放缓,研究要素配置与增长动力的意义重大,而要素替代弹性则是其中的关键参数。本文首先使用CES和VES两种生产函数形式及单方程和系统估计两类估计方法,对中国30个省份1978—2017年资本-劳动替代弹性及有偏技术进步进行估计,进而分析各省份技术进步及要素配置情况。然后基于省份替代弹性估计结果,从截面和面板两个维度对德拉格兰德维尔假说在中国的适用性进行实证检验。研究发现:(1)中国各省替代弹性均值及时变特征均存在明显差异,多数省份资本与劳动呈替代关系,过半数省份技术进步呈现劳动偏向型的特点。与实际要素分配情况比较发现,中国不少省份在过去一段时间内存在资本过度增长的要素错配问题。(2)德拉格兰德维尔假说所揭示的要素替代弹性促进经济增长的效应在全国截面和面板两个数据维度上成立,具体在东部和西部地区表现更为显著;进一步分析发现,对外贸易扩张和资本深化在不同程度上调节着全国和四大地区要素替代弹性的增长效应发挥。这些结论对当前构建新发展格局和推动高质量发展具有重要的启示意义。

In recent years, with the change in factor distribution patterns and the slowdown of economic growth in China, it is of great importance to analyze the factor allocation and the driving force of growth. As a key parameter, the elasticity of factor substitution deserves more investigations. This paper first employs CES and VES production functions, single-equation and multi-equation system estimation methods to estimate the elasticity of capital-labor substitution and biased technical change of 30 Chinese provinces from 1978 to 2017. Based upon the estimation results, this paper analyzes the technical change and factor allocation of each province. Then, the research further conducts the empirical research on the applicability of the “De La Grandville Hypothesis” in China, using both cross-sectional and panel data. It is concluded that:(1)Regarding the elasticity of factor substitution, there are salient differences in the mean and time-varying characteristics among provinces. Capital and labor are in an alternative relationship in most provinces, and the technical change is labor-biased over half of provinces. Meanwhile, comparing with the actual factor distribution, it appears that problems of factor misallocation occurred in many Chinese provinces during the research period.(2)The “De La Grandville Hypothesis” is supported by both cross-sectional and panel data of China, and the growth effect of the elasticity of factor substitution in the eastern and western regions is significantly stronger. Furthermore, openness and capital deepening can significantly moderate the growth effect in diverse ways at the national and regional levels. These could provide important implications for the construction of the new development mode and the promotion of high-quality development.