中国产业结构变迁特征、驱动机制及成因分解--理论模型与定量事实

Characteristics,Endogenous Driving Mechanism and Cause Decomposition of Structural Change in China:Theoretical model and Quantitative facts

本文基于“需求增加值法”结合供给侧相对价格效应、需求侧收入效应和其他因素量化评估广延和集约边际需求变化,解释中国1981—2017年产业结构变迁的特征和成因贡献。采用NLSUR参数估计法与反事实模拟分析发现:(1)恩格尔效应是决定农业、服务业结构变化的主导机制;(2)工业增加值比重呈“驼峰型”是“恩格尔(正)+鲍莫尔(负)”两种机制“净效应”的结果;(3)服务业增加值比重上升归因于“恩格尔(正)+鲍莫尔(正)”两种正效应相互加强。同时引入劳动力市场摩擦因子弥合增加值比重和就业比重非同步的缺口。

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the characteristics and contributing factors of China’s industrial structure changes from 1981 to 2017. Based on WORLD KLEMS, WIOD, and input-output data, this study constructs a multi-sector general equilibrium model, introduces the “Consumption Value-added Method” to track the composition of industrial added value caused by final demand, and evaluates the change of extensive and intensive marginal demand by combining demand-side income effect, supply-side relative price effect, and “other” factors. Results under the NLSUR estimation and counterfactual analysis suggest that: (1) Engel effect is the dominant mechanism that determines the change of the proportion of added value in agriculture and service industry;(2) The “hump-shape” of industrial added value is the result of the net effect of the Engel effect(positive) and Baumol effect(negative);(3) Increase in the proportion of added value of service industry is attributed to the mutual reinforcement of Engel effect(positive) and Baumol effect(positive). In addition, this work finds that the introduction of labor market friction factor provides a new solution to bridge the inconsistency of proportion within added value and employment.