基于多主体仿真模型的公众房价预期演化研究

Research on the Evolution of Public House Price Expectations Based on Multi-Agent Simulation Model

结合复杂适应系统理论,基于多主体建模方法构建公众房价预期演化模型,并考察不同社会网络属性、不同调控政策环境以及不同媒体属性等三种情景下公众房价预期的演化过程.研究结果表明:随着社会网络平均中心度的增加,房地产市场公众看涨预期增加.在宽松(紧缩)政策环境下,随着政策密度的提高,持看涨(看跌)预期的主体人数逐渐增加,但宽松政策环境和紧缩政策环境对公众房价预期影响具有非对称性.当媒体态度与调控政策方向一致时,随着媒体关注度提高,媒体报道对公众房价预期引导作用越明显.当媒体态度与调控政策方向相反时,媒体态度对公众房价预期影响存在差异.

Combined with the complex adaptive system theory,this paper constructs the evolution model of public house price expectations based on multi-agent modeling method and investigates the evolution process under different social network attributes,regulatory policy environments and media attributes.The findings show that with the increase of the average centrality of social network,the public bullish expectation in the real estate market increases.In the loose(tight)policy environment,with the increase of policy density,the number of subjects holding bullish(bearish)expectations gradually increases,but the impact of loose policy environment and tight policy environment on public house price expectations is asymmetric.When the media attitude is consistent with the direction of regulation policy,with the increase of media attention,the guiding role of media reports on public house price expectations is more obvious.When the media attitude is opposite to the direction of regulation policy,the impact of media attitude on public house price expectation isdifferent.