LNG新型定价模式与天然气市场供需失衡的暴露-滞后-反应关系研究

Research on the exposure-lag-response relationship between the new LNG pricing pattern and the supply-demand imbalance in the natural gas market

针对传统LNG定价机制与天然气市场供求规律匹配不充分现象,比较研究传统和新型LNG定价模式对天然气市场供需失衡的影响效应对于价格机制完善具有重要意义.文章从时序、形状和变化相似性三个维度来刻画变量间匹配程度,并采用DLNM模型描述变量间暴露-滞后-反应关系.结果表明:煤炭价格与天然气市场供求规律的振幅波动和周期演化模式最为相似;相比于气-气挂钩,煤-气挂钩和油-气挂钩更适合中国天然气市场供求规律.从单一滞后效应来看,低油价和低煤价对天然气市场供需失衡具有“保护效应”;高油价的戕害效应不具备持续性,高煤价则相反.从累积滞后效应来看,油价、煤价、亨利中心和亚洲LNG价格对天然气市场供需失衡的累积效应分别呈现倒W型、对勾型、斜坡型和钟型态势;油价在89.5美元/桶时对天然气市场供需失衡的戕害效应达到峰值,而煤价在65美元/吨时影响最小.研究结论对于未来天然气价格改革提供了重要参考.

In response to the phenomenon of inadequate matching between traditional LNG pricing mechanism and the supply and demand laws of natural gas market,a comparative analysis of the effects of traditional and new LNG pricing patterns on the imbalance between supply and demand in the natural gas market is of great significance for price mechanism improvement.This paper portrayed the degree of matching between variables in three dimensions:Time series similarity,amplitude similarity and period similarity,and used the DLNM model to describe the exposure-lag-response relationship between variables.The results showed that the amplitude fluctuations and cyclical evolution patterns of coal price and supply-demand patterns in the natural gas markets were most similar;coal-gas linkage and oil-gas linkage were more suitable for China's natural gas market supply-demand patterns than gas-gas linkage.In terms of the one-day lagged effect,low oil and coal prices had a“protective effect”on the imbalance between supply and demand in the natural gas market;the injurious effect of high oil prices was not sustainable,while the opposite was true for high coal prices.In terms of cumulative lagged effects,the cumulative effects of oil,coal,Henry Hub and Asian LNG prices on the imbalance between supply and demand in the natural gas market showed inverted W-shaped,tick-shaped,ramp-shaped and bell-shaped patterns respectively;the injurious effect of oil price on the imbalance between supply and demand in the natural gas market peaked at 89.5/barrel,while the effect of coal price was least at 65/ton.The results provided important reference for future natural gas price reform.