土耳其在俄乌冲突中的平衡外交:表现、动因及影响

Turkey’s Balanced Diplomacy in Russia-Ukraine Conflict:Responses,Motivations and Implications

在2022年俄乌冲突中,土耳其等中等强国或地区性大国在大国博弈中积极寻求外交平衡,避免选边站队,在区域政治和全球政治中的影响力持续上升。作为北约成员国、欧盟候选国和黑海沿岸国家,土耳其之所以在俄乌、俄美(北约)以及俄欧之间采取平衡外交是基于维护国家利益、赢取民意支持、谋求战略自主、彰显多元身份等诸多原因。不过,土耳其的平衡外交也有其限度,如土俄关系的非对称性、土美之间的结构性矛盾以及土耳其的反西方主义情绪等。土耳其未来在大国之间仍将寻求外交平衡,这对于提升其地缘战略价值、缓和外交孤立、增强全球影响力均具有重要意义,也从根本上有利于其战略自主地位的形成。然而,随着反对党力量不断增强,西方国家希望土耳其反对党在2023年选举中上台,土耳其的平衡外交因此面临巨大威胁。

In the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022,Turkey and other middle powers or regional powers will actively seek diplomatic balance,avoid choosing sides in the game of great powers,and their influence in regional and global politics will continue to rise.As a member of NATO,a candidate country for the European Union,and a littoral country of the Black Sea,the reason why Turkey adopts a balanced diplomacy between Russia and Ukraine,between the U.S.(NATO) and Russia,and between Europe and Russia is based on a series of factors such as safeguarding national interests,winning public support,seeking strategic autonomy and demonstrating diversified identity.However,Turkey’s balanced diplomacy also has its limitations,such as the asymmetry of Turkey-Russia relations,the structural contradictions between Turkey and the U.S.,and Turkey’s growing anti-Western sentiments.However,Turkey will try its best to implement a balanced diplomacy among great powers in the future,and this will be of great benefit to enhancing its geo-strategic value,easing diplomatic isolation,and enhancing its influence in global affairs,which is conducive to the formation of Turkey’s real strategic autonomy.But with the growing influence of the opposition,Western countries hope that the Turkish opposition parties will come to power in the 2023 election,thus posing a huge threat to Turkey’s b alanced diplomacy.