以色列介入俄乌冲突的动机、举措及影响

Israel’s Intervention in Russia-Ukraine Conflict:Motivations,Measures and Impact

当国际冲突影响本国关键利益时,作为冲突第三方的国家即使缺乏用于调停的资源和影响力且调停策略选择有限,也可能介入国际冲突并成为小国调停者。介入冲突后,小国调停者围绕实现本国利益这一根本目标,除提供调停外,还将依托其调停国身份,采取一系列务实的外交举措。小国调停者的介入在对消弭国际冲突起到一定积极作用的同时,也将对调停国本身产生复杂影响。俄乌冲突期间,由于以色列判断本国的国家安全、立国合法性、经济运行、社会稳定等国家利益受到冲突的实际或潜在影响,于是选择介入其中。一方面,以色列的调停增进了冲突双方的信息传递与沟通。其在调停过程中面向冲突双方的一系列务实外交举措,在相当程度上实现了所指涉的国家利益。另一方面,以色列的介入致使以俄、以乌、以美双边关系均面临不确定性,背后折射出以色列政局与社会的碎片化态势。

When an international conflict affects its own key interests,a third-party state may intervene in this international conflict and become a small state mediator even though it lacks resources and influence for mediation and has limited choices in mediation strategies.After getting involved in the conflict,the small state mediator will not only provide mediation,but also take a series of pragmatic diplomatic measures based on the status as mediator to realize its own interests.The decision and relevant measures of the small state mediator to intervene in international conflicts may play a positive role in the elimination of international conflicts,and also have a complex impact on the mediator itself.During the Russia-Ukraine conflict,Israel choosed to intervene as a small state mediator because its national interests such as national security,national legitimacy,economic operation and social stability are actually or potentially affected by the conflict.Israel’s mediation has enhanced the information transmission and communication between the two sides of the conflict,and its plentiful pragmatic diplomatic measures in the mediation process towards Russia and Ukraine have realized its own national interests mentioned to a considerable extent.However meanwhile,it should be noted that Israel ’s intervention in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its related measures have led to uncertainties in Israel-Russia,Israel-Ukraine and Israel-U.S.bilateral relations,and again reflects the fragmentation of Israel’s political situation and society.