跨境物流企业采纳区块链技术的三群体演化博弈模型研究

Research on three⁃group evolutionary game model of cross⁃border logistics enterprises adopting blockchain technology

跨境物流企业的技术采纳行为是一个复杂的长期动态变化过程,企业的行为策略与地方政府的规制行为、市场主体消费者的技术选择密切相关。为此,文中在多方博弈的背景下,使用博弈论分析工具对企业的技术采纳行为进行研究。为了更加符合实际情况,不再局限于传统的静态博弈框架,基于有限理性和生物演化思想建立跨境物流企业、地方政府、消费者之间的三群体动态演化博弈模型,并采用数学推导与仿真分析相结合的方法进行研究。三群体博弈系统存在4种可能的演化稳定策略,其余4种策略无法满足渐近稳定条件,其中最理想的演化结果是:企业采纳区块链技术,政府采取不规制措施,消费者选择接受区块链式物流服务。不同的约束条件下会出现不同的演化结果,为达到最理想的演化结果,提高企业采纳区块链技术后各类成本降低而产生的间接收益最为重要,而消费者的技术选择也会对企业产生积极影响,同时企业的直接采纳成本与技术创新的外部环境成本同等重要,政府也应主动作为,为企业提供有利的技术创新环境。

The technology adoption behavior of cross⁃border logistics enterprises is a complex long⁃term dynamic change process.The behavior strategy of enterprises is closely related to the regulation of local governments and the technology choice of market main consumers.Under the background of multi⁃party game,the game theory analysis tool is used to study the technology adoption behavior of the enterprises.In order to be more in line with the actual situation,it is no longer limited to the traditional static game framework,a three⁃group dynamic evolutionary game model among cross⁃border logistics enterprises,local governments and consumers is established on the basis of bounded rationality and biological evolutionideaand by means of the method combining mathematical derivation and simulation analysis.There are four possible evolutionary stability strategies in the three⁃group game system,and the other four strategies can not meet the asymptotic stability conditions.The most ideal evolution result is that the enterprises adopt blockchain technology,the government adopts non regulatory measures,and consumers choose to accept blockchain logistics services.Different evolution results can appear under the condition of different constraints.In order to achieve the most ideal evolution results,it is most important to improve the indirect benefits generated by the reduction of various costs after enterprises adopt blockchain technology,and the technology choice of consumers will also have a positive impact on the enterprises.The directly⁃adopted cost of enterprises is as important as the external environmental cost of technological innovation,and the government should also take the initiative to provide a favorable technological innovation environment for the enterprises.