日本涉台政策调整的路径、动因及未来走向

The Path, Motivation and Future Trend of Japan’s Taiwan-related Policy Adjustment

中美战略竞争博弈以来,外部势力干预台海形势愈加激烈,在地缘政治的驱动下,日本涉台政策出现明显调整。美日两国携手深度介入台海事务,日本从多个层面推动涉台政策转向,欲将美日同盟扩及台湾,图谋台湾问题“国际化”,借打“台湾牌”进一步遏制中国发展。虽然日本在区域发展与经济振兴上仍然离不开中国大陆,但受中美战略竞争加剧、自民党政治立场集体右倾、日本国家发展战略导向以及美日同盟制约等因素影响,未来日本势必会继续介入台海局势,中日关系的政治基础很可能会进一步遭受冲击,中国台湾问题也将更加复杂。祖国大陆的“反干涉”和“反台独”两种斗争将会同步进行,而“反独促统”的形势与任务也会面临新的挑战。

Since the strategic competition between China and the United States,the situation of external forces intervening in the Taiwan Strait has become more and more intense.Driven by geopolitics,Japan’s Taiwan-related policies have undergone significant adjustments.The United States and Japan have joined hands to deeply intervene in the Taiwan Strait.Japan has promoted policy changes related to Taiwan from multiple levels,aiming to expand the alliance between the United States and Japan to Taiwan,seeking to “internationalize” the Taiwan Question,and playing the “Taiwan card” to further curb China’s development.Although Japan is still dependent on the Chinese mainland in terms of its regional development and economic revitalization,due to factors such as the intensified strategic competition between China and the United States,the collective right-leaning of the Liberal Democratic Party’s political position,the direction of Japan’s national development strategy,and the constraints of the US-Japan alliance,Japan is bound to continue to intervene in the situation in the Taiwan Strait the future.The political foundation of Sino-Japanese relations is likely to be further impacted,and the Taiwan Question will become more complicated.The two struggles of “anti-intervention” and “anti-Taiwan independence” Question of the mainland will be carried out simultaneously,and the situation and tasks of “anti-independence and promoting reunification” will also face new challenges.