旅游与碳排放:全球视角与区域比较

Tourism and carbon emissions:Global perspectives and regional comparisons

文章基于全球88个国家1995到2018年的数据,运用动态面板数据模型估计了旅游对碳排放的影响。结果表明:①从全球范围来看,旅游者人次对人均碳排放和碳强度有显著的增加效应。随着旅游者人次的进一步增加,旅游和人均碳排放、碳强度之间存在倒U型和N型曲线关系。旅游收入对人均碳排放和碳强度有显著的降低效应。旅游收入和人均碳排放之间存在倒U型和N型曲线关系,旅游收入和碳强度之间的非线性关系则与之相反。②旅游者人次增加了发达国家的人均碳排放但是降低了其碳强度,在发展中国家则相反。在发达国家,旅游收入对人均碳排放和碳强度有显著的负向影响,但在发展中国家则为显著的正向影响。③经济增长和产业结构增加了旅游对人均碳排放的正向影响,可再生能源利用和技术进步强化了旅游收入对碳强度的负向影响。本研究成果有助于全面、深入地理解旅游对碳排放的影响及其区域异质性特征。

This paper analyzes the(non)linear effects of tourism on carbon emissions using a dynamic panel data model based on data for 88 countries worldwide from 1995 to 2018.The paper also explores the regional heterogeneity of such effects by distinguishing between developed and developing countries.This paper further examines the moderating effects of economic growth,industrial structure,renewable energy use,and technological progress.The article significantly contributes to the existing body of knowledge in terms of variable selection,research methodology,and mechanism analysis.The main findings of this paper include:Firstly,on a global scale,tourist arrivals significantly affect carbon emissions per capita and carbon intensity.There is an inverted U-and N-shaped curve relationship between the former and the latter two.Tourism receipts significantly decrease carbon emissions per capita,and there is also an inverted U-and N-shaped curve relationship between the two.Tourism receipts also exert a significant decreasing effect on carbon intensity;however,there is a U-shaped and inverted N-curve relationship between the two.Secondly,tourist arrivals significantly positively affect carbon emissions per capita in developed countries while exert negative effects in developing countries,with the opposite effects on carbon intensity.In both developed and developing countries,tourist arrivals have inverted U-shaped and N-shaped curve effects on carbon emissions per capita.There exists an inverted U-shaped curve relationship between tourist arrivals and carbon intensity in developed countries and inverted U-and N-shaped curve relationships in developing countries.Tourism receipts have significant negative effects on carbon emissions per capita and carbon intensity in developed countries and positive effects in developing countries.U-and inverted N-shaped curve relationships exist between tourism receipts and carbon emissions per capita in developed countries and the opposite in developing countries.In contrast,tourism receipts have more similar quadratic and cubic curve effects on carbon intensity in developed countries than in developing countries.Thirdly,economic growth and industrial structure have a significant positive moderating effect on the nexus of tourist arrivals and carbon emissions per capita.Technological progress significantly reduces the marginal positive effects of tourist arrivals on carbon intensity.Economic growth,industry structure,and renewable energy use significantly mitigate the adverse effects of tourism receipts and carbon emissions per capita.The moderating effects of economic growth and industrial structure on the relationship between tourism receipts and carbon intensity are the opposite of renewable energy use and technological progress.