各国参与全球价值链的环境库兹涅茨效应——基于跨国面板数据

Environmental Kuznets effect of countries’participation in global value chains:Based on multinational panel data

随着经济全球化概念越来越深刻地体现在国际分工专业化和经济增长模式中,全球价值链(GVC)的深化将如何影响环境这一问题引发了越来越多的思考。本文立足于GVC的视角,利用1995-2018年64个国家的面板数据,依托环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)理论体系,探究了参与GVC对于环境污染和经济增长关联性的影响,分析各国参与GVC是否会影响EKC的“拐点”。研究结论表明:(1)GVC参与度的提高将显著延后EKC“拐点”的到来,这一“延后”主要源于后向GVC分工的驱动,而前向GVC分工的提升将有助于EKC“拐点”的提前。(2)参与GVC对EKC“拐点”的影响存在国家异质性,环境规制严格的国家参与GVC将助其更早迎来“拐点”,实现经济发展意义上的碳达峰;而规制宽松的国家参与GVC则可能沦为“污染天堂”。(3)GVC参与度对EKC“拐点”的影响存在行业异质性,其中技术密集型行业前向GVC参与度的提升将有效推动EKC“拐点”提前到来。(4)GVC参与度与CO_(2)之间存在倒U型的非线性关系。本文的发现丰富了全球价值链在经济和环境效应方面的实证应用,为协调经济高质量发展与生态环境约束提供了新思路。

As the concept of economic globalization is increasingly more deeply reflected in the international division of labor and specialization and the mode of economic growth,the question of how the deepening global value chains(GVCs)will affect the environment has attracted broad attention.Based on the perspective of GVC,this study used the panel data of 64 countries(regions)from 1995 to 2018 and the environmental Kuznets curve(EKC)theory to explore the impact of participating in GVC on the correlation between environmental pollution and economic growth,and analyze whether the participation of countries in the GVC will affect the“turning point”of the EKC.The research results show that:(1)The improvement of GVC participation will significantly delay the arrival of the turning point of the EKC.This delay is mainly driven by the backward GVC,and the improvement of the forward GVC will help the advance of the EKC turning point.(2)Heterogeneity of countries is observed in the impact of participating in GVC on the turning point of the EKC.The participation of countries with strict environmental regulations in GVC will help them usher in the turning point earlier and achieve a carbon peak in the sense of economic development.But the participation of countries with relaxed environmental regulations in GVC may result in their decline into a“pollution heaven”.(3)There is industry heterogeneity in the impact of GVC participation on the turning point of the EKC,and the improvement of forward GVC in technology-intensive industries will effectively promote the early arrival of the turning point of the EKC.(4)There is an inverted U-shaped nonlinear relationship between GVC participation and carbon emissions.The findings of this study enrich the empirical application of global value chains in economic and environmental effect research,and provide new ideas for coordinating high-quality economic development with ecological and environmental constraints.