双循环的经济增长效应:基于国内贸易的视角

The Economic Growth Effect of Dual Circulation

构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局是中国未来中长期的重要战略举措。本文利用2017年中国多区域投入产出数据,通过构建一个多地区-多部门贸易模型来量化分析双循环及其经济增长效应,并从区域和行业层面分别分析降低省际贸易成本、促进国内循环和降低关税、促进国际循环的经济影响。研究发现,在宏观层面上,双循环、国内循环和国际循环分别提高实际经济增长26.55%、15.91%和5.40%;在行业层面上,上述三种循环对应的经济增长效应平均值分别为36.94%、22.78%和6.05%。可见,国内循环的经济增长效应大于国际循环,且双循环的整体经济增长效应大于国内循环和国际循环之和。进一步分析发现,降低省际贸易成本、促进国内循环,有助于实现产业转移和缩小地区经济差距,但却不利于产业转型升级;降低关税、促进国际循环,有助于实现产业结构转型升级,但却可能进一步扩大区域发展不平衡。未来应权衡二者的关系,充分考虑产业的空间分布特点,用差异化的政策来推动经济高质量发展。

It is an important strategic measure in the medium-long term to build the new development pattern with domestic circulation as the main body while promoting domestic and international circulation simultaneously. Based on the 2017 China multi-regional input-output table, with 31 provinces(excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) as the basic analysis unit, this paper used the domestic and international trade among provinces to measure domestic and international circulation, respectively. We calculated the proportion of the total expenditure of each province from other domestic provinces and imports, as well as the proportion of total output flowing to other domestic provinces and exports, and found that the domestic inter-provincial trade was much higher than the international trade, which initially suggested that “domestic circulation” is more important to economic development than “international circulation.”Moreover, we constructed a multi-region-multi-sector trade model, which linked intermediate inputs and final outputs through input-output relationships and considered the heterogeneity of different product sectors(industries) in different regions. Therefore, the model can more accurately describe the relationship between trade and economic growth. Finally, we measured the contribution of the dual circulation to economic growth based on the constructed model with the counterfactual analysis method. We found that at the macro level, dual circulation, domestic circulation, and international circulation increased real economic growth by 26.55%, 15.91%, and 5.40%, respectively;at the industry level, the average economic growth effects corresponding to the above three circulations were 36.94%, 22.78%, and 6.05%, respectively.Therefore, the economic growth effect of the domestic circulation was greater than that of the international circulation, which confirms the assertion that “the domestic circulation is the main body” from both the economic theory and real data. Moreover, we found that the overall economic growth effect of the dual circulation was greater than the sum of the domestic and international circulation, which suggests that the “mutual promotion of domestic and international dual circulation” is also important. The structural analysis reveals that the central and western regions and the traditional labor-intensive industries benefited more from domestic circulation, whereas the eastern region and the high-tech industries benefited more from international circulation. Promoting domestic circulation can be helpful for industrial transfer and narrowing regional economic gaps but is not conducive to industrial transformation and upgrading, whereas promoting international circulation can be conducive to realizing industrial structure transformation and upgrading but may further expand the regional development imbalances. Therefore, balancing the regional economic gaps and industrial upgrading can be a challenging task, which requires differentiated policies to coordinate.