中国的资金循环与宏观经济监测:部门视角

The Flow of Funds and Surveillance of the Macroeconomy in China

本文从资金循环的部门视角出发,开发出1998~2020年“点对点”资金流量及资产负债矩阵,创新资金循环的统计方法,通过观测资金的产业性循环与金融性循环的波动特点与变化趋势,剖析了中国资金循环中存在的结构性问题,从而明确了过去中国金融市场中“谁在承担风险”的疑问,并给出了“由谁承担风险更好”的政策建议。2017年以来政府部门在金融市场中承担并消化着债务违约风险,存在着财政风险与金融风险相互溢出,财政手段带来的经济效益有所下降。金融部门的资金供给影响力和资金筹集感应度近年来持续上升,各部门潜在的违约风险也明显向金融机构集中。因此,在宏观审慎中金融部门应有一个位置转换,通过市场调节金融资源的合理配置,提高监控风险的能力。

Since the 2008 U.S.financial crisis, China’s economic and financial structure has undergone tremendous changes.To strengthen macroeconomic monitoring, from the sectoral perspective of the flow of funds, this paper describes the characteristics of the uses and sources of funds in each sector and develops China’s flow-of-funds matrix and financial asset-liability matrix for 1998-2020 using the flow of funds and stock data.The paper innovatively introduces a new method to keep track of the flow of funds, triangulates the order of various institutional sectors, carries out the influence and sensitivity analysis of the flow of funds and stocks from the perspective of sectors, and analyzes the multiplier analysis of the fluctuations in the funds propagation.By observing the characteristics of the fluctuation and changing trend of the industrial and financial flow of funds, the paper discusses and analyzes the structural problems in China’s flow of funds, thus clarifying the question of “Who is taking the risk?” in China’s financial markets in the past 20 years and giving policy suggestions for “Who is better to take the risk?”There are three main contributions of this study.First, the flow of funds tables and balance sheets in the form of two-dimensional accounts are performed into three-dimensional statistical matrices, and the flow of funds and stock matrices in the W-to-W model from 1998 to 2020 are established to better analyze the financial flow of funds.Second, the paper triangulates the established matrices based on the perspective of departments, observes the changes in capital structure from the asset and liability sides, and evaluates the role and impact of fund operations of each sector in the market.Third, the power-of-dispersion index and sensitivity-of-dispersion index of Stone and Klein’s methods are calculated, and the impact of funds in various sectors is measured to provide the objective basis and policy options of “Who is taking the risk?” and “ Who is better to take the risk?”The main conclusions are as follows.First, the government sector has the largest fluctuation in the triangular ranking, and its ranking has been at the top since 2017, which indicates that the government sector has accumulated a large amount of debt and is taking and absorbing the debt default risk in the financial market.More than 90% of the government’s debt is held by financial institutions, so there is the possibility of a spillover of fiscal and financial risks.Second, the SDI of the government sector to the supply of funds from the whole society has decreased since 2015, and the multiplier of the net supply of funds has been declining since 2017, indicating that the economic benefits brought by government fiscal measures have declined.The PDI and SDI of the financial sector are the strongest, and its and have continued to rise in recent years, indicating that the influence of funds supply and the sensitivity of funds rising have increased and the potential default risks of all sectors are concentrated in financial institutions, so the financial sector should have the ability to bear risks.