基于蒙特卡洛的区域供热系统不确定热需求场景研究

Study on the Uncertainty of Thermal Scenarios in District Heating System Based on Monte Carlo Method

传统的集中供热系统对源-荷之间的协同关系考虑不够周全,往往忽略了需求侧不确定性给系统带来的变化,从而导致系统整体运行效率较低,碳排放和运行成本较高,不利于未来区域供热事业的发展。为此,本文针对区域供热系统中热需求场景的不确定性,利用EnergyPlus软件构建了供热系统模型,并通过蒙特卡洛的方法将不确定热场景概率化,分析了需求侧各个因素对供热能耗的影响,以及与确定性模型的差异。分析结果表明,在不确定因素中人员活动强度以及人均占地面积,对供热能耗的影响不超过5%;而室内温度及单位面积通风量,对其影响超过10%。考虑需求侧不确定性后公共类型建筑的能耗波动大于居住建筑。以确定性模型的年能耗值为基准,整个区域的年能耗值在-15.79%~7.37%之间波动,确定性模型只能够满足81%的不确定概率场景。

Conventional central heating systems do not attach importance to the synergy between heat source and load,and often ignore the change brought about by the uncertainty of demands,which leads to low efficiency,high carbon emission and high operating cost of heating system and is not conducive to future development of centralized heating industry.In this paper,targeting at the uncertainties of thermal scenarios in district heating system,Energy Plus software was used to model the heating system,and Monte Carlo method was adopted to predict the probability of uncertainty.The influence of demand⁃side factors on energy consumption and the difference between the model and deterministic model were analyzed.The results show that,among the uncertainties,the influence of human activity intensity and per capita floor area on the energy consumption of heating is less than 5%.And the influence of indoor temperature and ventilation per unit area is greater than 10%.Considering the uncertainty of the demand side,the fluctuation of energy consumption of public buildings is greater than that of residential buildings.According to the annual energy consumption of the deterministic model,the energy consumed for the entire region falls in the range of-15.79%-7.37%,and the deterministic model can only satisfy the uncertain probability scenario of 81%.