气候变化对我国谢氏山蚤适生区的影响研究

Study on impacts of climate change on suitable habitats of Oropsylla silantiewi(Wagner) in China

目的 分析气候和地理因子对我国谢氏山蚤地理分布的影响,预测不同气候条件下谢氏山蚤在我国的分布范围。方法 检索国内外公开发表文献,从中提取我国谢氏山蚤分布相关的地理位置信息,并从公开网站获取气候和地理因子信息,应用MaxEnt模型分析各因子对我国谢氏山蚤分布的影响,并预测当前和未来2070年谢氏山蚤的潜在地理分布区。结果 影响谢氏山蚤分布的各气候和地理因子中,海拔贡献率最大(贡献率为40.20%),其次为年均温(18.10%)。当前气候条件下,谢氏山蚤主要分布于我国西北部山地和高原地区,高、中、低适生区面积分别占全国总面积的7.17%、13.93%、23.80%。预测结果表明,RCP 4.5气候模式下,2070年我国谢氏山蚤适生区面积将增加29.24万平方千米,新增生区主要位于内蒙古、黑龙江、新疆、西藏等地区。结论 海拔和年均温可能是影响谢氏山蚤分布的关键因素,未来我国谢氏山蚤适生区面积可能增加。

Objective To predict the distribution range of Oropsylla silantiewi under different climate conditions in China by analyzing the impacts of climate and geographical factors on the geographical distribution of Oropsylla silantiewi in China.Methods The geographical location information of Oropsylla silantiewi in China were extracted from published literatures at home and abroad, and climatic and geographical factors information were acquired from public websites.MaxEnt model was applied to analyze the impacts of factors on the distribution of Oropsylla silantiewi in China, and the potential geographical distribution area of Oropsylla silantiewi in the current and future 2070 were predicted.Results The elevation made the maximum contribution(with contribution rate in 40.20%) in the climatic and geographical factors impacting the geographical distribution of Oropsylla silantiewi,followed by annual mean temperature(18.10%).Oropsylla silantiewi was mainly distributed in the northwest mountainous and plateau areas of China in current climate conditions, the high-degree, medium-degree and low-degree suitable habitats accounted for 7.17%,13.93% and 23.80% of the total area of China, respectively.The prediction results showed that the suitable habitat of Oropsylla silantiewi in China by 2070 would increase by 29 240 square kilometers under the RCP 4.5 climate model, and the new growing areas would be mainly located in Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Xinjiang, Tibet and nearby areas.Concusion The elevation and the annual mean temperature may be key factors impacting the distribution of Oropsylla silantiewi,and the suitable habitat of Oropsylla silantiewi in China may increase in the future.