湖北省公路交通与新型城镇化的互动关系研究

Research on the Interactive Relationship between Highway Traffic and New Urbanization in Hubei Province

基于湖北省2009年~2019年的时间系列数据,从人口迁移、经济发展、社会服务、生态宜居和城乡统筹等5个维度构建新型城镇化指标体系,从交通规模、交通投资和交通服务等3个维度构建公路交通指标体系,根据熵权法确权,采用线性加权法分别测算公路交通和新型城镇化系统的综合得分。基于综合得分数据建立VAR模型,通过脉冲响应、方差分解等计量经济学方法分析2个系统之间的相互关系和作用效果。结果表明:湖北省公路交通和新型城镇化系统相互促进,公路交通对新型城镇化的推动作用较为显著,新型城镇化对公路交通有一定的拉动作用但效果较弱,两者之间的协调发展仍有很大的提升空间。

Based on the time series data of Hubei Province from 2009 to 2019,in the paper a new urbanization indicator system is constructed from five dimensions:population migration,economic development,social services,ecological livability,and urban-rural coordination.The road transport indicator system is built from three dimensions:traffic scale,traffic investment and traffic service.The weight is determined according to the entropy weight method,and the linear weighting method is used to separately measure the comprehensive scores of road traffic and new urbanization systems.A VAR model is established based on comprehensive score data,and the relationship and effect of the two systems are analyzed through econometric methods such as impulse response and variance decomposition.The results show that highway traffic system and the new urbanization system in Hubei Province promote each other,road traffic has a significant role in promoting new urbanization,and new urbanization has a certain pulling effect on road traffic,but the effect is weak,and there is still a lot of room for improvement in the coordinated development between the two systems.